Cameron advisers trying to avoid TV debates with Miliband

Television debates are often deemed to have been won by the “underdog”. In the recent Scottish debate, Alistair Darling surprised many by dispatching with seasoned debater Alex Salmond. At the last US election, Romney left the first debate with a resounding victory over incumbent Obama. In 2010, Nick Clegg took advantage of people expecting nothing of him, while David Cameron used the opportunity to present himself as prime ministerial.

You can see, then, why the Tories’ half-a-million pound adviser Lynton Crosby is against Cameron taking part in any debates next year, as The Observer reports today. The odds sit very much in Ed Miliband’s favour.

With those 2010 debate victories under his belt, a reputation as an adept media performer and five years of being prime minister, Cameron would enter the debates next year as the firm favourite. Meanwhile, so much of the Tory election strategy relies on convincing people that Ed Miliband is weird and not prime ministerial that they have effectively spent an entire parliament playing down the Labour leader’s chances. Cameron agreeing to debates would be handing Miliband a platform to confound expectations – all Ed would need to do is turn up and avoid eating a bacon sandwich and people will judge it as a good night for him. Cameron will need to do much better just to achieve a small win.

A source told The Observer:

“The public think Ed Miliband is weird so why give him a chance to dissuade them of that opinion through the debates. Miliband might even be quite good at them – surely much better to have weeks of pictures of Cameron on industrial sites and factories talking about economic growth. There may be a few blokes dressed in chickens chasing him around but no one votes on whether a TV debate has been staged or not. That’s Crosby’s position.”

Of course, Downing Street can’t admit that Cameron is avoiding the debates because it would look like he was running scared. Their official line is still: “The TV debates will happen. Negotiations start in the autumn.”

The likelihood now is that the Tories will drag their feet during negotiations – and leak stories to the press that Labour are blocking progress. If you see any stories like that after conference season, just remember that it’s Lynton Crosby who doesn’t want these debates to go ahead.

Expect Miliband to try and head off those stories in the meantime: he’s already gone public about how keen he is for the debates to happen, so don’t be surprised if an appeal for debates appears in his conference speech. LabourList readers will certainly be behind him; our survey in April showed a majority want to see a Cameron/Miliband/Clegg debate next year.