Don’t underestimate Darling – he can beat Salmond

Update: A Guardian/ICM poll of viewers says Darling won the debate by 56% to 44%. I’m feeling quite vindicated by that – and Darling should be delighted with his performance. He was strong on the key issues, especially in the cross-examinations. The clamour for him to return to the Labour benches will increase after that.

In just over an hour, the first (and perhaps final) Scottish Independence TV debate will take place. Salmond vs Darling. It’s a second choice contest for the Scottish First Minister who has spent months trying to goad David Cameron into a confrontation. Fortunately, the PM avoided such a bear trap. Salmond debating Cameron would have elevated from from party leader and one side of the referendum debate to what he wishes to be – a national leader debating another national leader. Add in the fact that the Tories are drifting further into irrelevance in Scotland, it’d have been hard for Cameron to do anything but damage Better Together.

Instead – Salmond must face Darling.

There has already been much expectation management taking place on both sides of the debate. Both campaigns seem to largely accept that Salmond will “win” – he’s been practising his argument for nearly half a century after all – but underestimating Darling seems a bit short-sighted.

After all, Darling is no novice.

Now he’s largely known as a former Chancellor, but before that he was – and in many ways still is – the safest pair of hands in politics. He is the very definition of “no drama”. With mastery of his brief, detail at his fingertips and reputation as a cool head in a crisis, Darling commands respect from across the political spectrum. He has been lambasted as being “dull” or “dry” – but his debating style is fierce and combative.

If Salmond underestimates Darling – then he hasn’t done his homework.

Back in 2010 most of the focus was on the Leader’s debates, but Channel 4 also hosted a debates between Darling, Osborne and Cable. Despite a struggling economy, warnings of cuts to come and a hostile political and media climate, Darling came a close second to Cable and pushed Osborne into third in the immediate post-debate polls. That’s a stark contrast to Gordon Brown’s debate performances, which never got clear of last place.

Undoubtedly Salmond needs a knock out victory over Darling tonight to make any sort of headway for the Yes campaign. Their progress has stalled, and they have an ever decreasing amount of time and space left available to them (at a time when minds are largely made up and many people are on holiday). But Darling winning the debate tonight should be ruled out. He has the pedigree, and he has the experience too.

Underestimate Alistair Darling at your peril.