Labour surges to 7 point lead with ICM

Last month ICM had a 1 point lead for the Tories. This month the picture is far more positive – with a Labour lead of seven points. That’s a swing that’s well outside the margin of error, suggesting that Labour have made up ground on the Tories since ICM’s July poll. Since then, there’ve been a series of Labour speeches on “The Choice” between Labour and the Tories. Meanwhile on the Tory side, Sayeeda Warsi resigned over Gaza, Boris Johnson announced he’d be standing as an MP and violence in Iraq has reached crisis levels, leading to calls for renewed intervention.

Usually you might expect the Tories – with the machinery of government behind them – to have the upper hand over the summer. But instead Labour’s vote share has risen by 5 points to 38%, whilst the Tories are down 3 points to 31%. So far from the sustained “crossover” that some thought we might be about to see, Labour has its healthiest lead with ICM (the “gold standard of polling”) for some time.

Here’s how that looks:

If Labour could sustain this kind of lead in the months ahead, jittery Labour MPs might be able to calm down…