LabourList readers fear UKIP will harm Labour vote

LabourList readers are worried about the impact UKIP will have on the Labour vote at next year’s general election, according to our latest Weekly Survey.

Last week it was claimed that some strategists in the party had calculated that a 9% UKIP vote in 2015 would mean enough lost votes for the Tories to ensure a Labour victory. At the weekend Conor Pope warned that this could mean disaster for our chances next year. Yesterday, Polly Billington, the Labour candidate in Thurrock (where UKIP are expected to do well), wrote that it would not just be electorally complacent for Labour to adopt a 9% UKIP strategy – there are moral implications too.

It seems that LabourList readers agree. 47% of those who took our survey said that UKIP were taking Labour votes, and that “allowing” them to reach 9% would backfire. A further 34% were less concerned about the impact UKIP’s popularity would have on Labour’s polling, but said that we still could not work with a strategy that could see them poll 9% – echoing Billington’s comments about whether we wanted to build a society where UKIP was an appealing force.

10% felt that UKIP posed far more of a danger to the Conservatives, and that the short-term advantages outweighed the long-term disadvantages of such a plan.

At the weekend, Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Rachel Reeves floated the idea of reforming the welfare and immigration system, so only those who had moved to the country and contributed into the system through working would be able to claim some benefits. 57% of readers are largely behind this proposal, while 35% were against it.

We also asked about Labour’s summer campaign, “The Choice”. Over the past fortnight, many Shadow Cabinet members have made speeches under the slogan, highlighting the difference between a Tory Government and a Labour one. Almost 70% of you thought that the idea was a good one, although were split almost equally to whether it was working or not. Not working edged it, barely, with just over 34%, compared to just under.

10% thought the campaign was not a good idea, while 22% had not made their mind up – which perhaps suggests it is not cutting through particularly well.