Populus poll sees small Tory lead, but Labour would be the biggest party

The latest Populus poll gives the Conservatives a one point lead over Labour – but Labour are still projected to win more seats.

CON 36%, LAB 35%, UKIP 11%, LIB DEM 9%, OTHER 9%

The projections for this would see Labour win 314 seats, 12 short of a majority, and the Tories on 298, while the Lib Dems would take only 11 – meaning that a coalition with either larger party would still not reach the threshold for a parliamentary majority. This poll continues a peculiar trend for Populus polls that sees Labour perform well early in the week, and the Tories perform better later in the week – as highlighted here by Political Betting’s Mike Smithson:

Some of the most interesting facets of the poll are that the Tories hold a new lead with women (38% to 34%), that they hold a large lead with the over-65s (47% to 24%) and that their voters are more likely to turn out (73% to 65% are “absolutely certain to vote).

On the plus side for Labour, 24% of people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 plan to vote Labour in 2015 – and that’s a fairly static figure.

Obviously, trends are more important than single polls and Labour’s average lead over the summer with Populus still stands at about 3 points.