Sorry Boris, but the public think this is no time for a clown like you

One critical factor has been sustaining Tory morale in the face of the stubborn refusal of their poll rating to go up despite a limited economic recovery; the pain of being in coalition with a party they detest; the steady loss of activists, core supporters and council seats to UKIP; and the realisation that if they could not secure an overall majority in 2010 against an unpopular and tired Labour government it will be virtually impossible to secure one after five years of austerity.

That factor has been faith that in the event they lose the General Election, David Cameron would be replaced a leader by the King Over the Thames, his Bullingdon Club contemporary Boris Johnson. Boris’ ability to win the mayoralty of London is seen as nothing short of miraculous, given it is a city accelerating rapidly leftwards in parliamentary, council, Euro and London Assembly elections as it’s population becomes ever more composed of every group the Tories do not appeal to nationally: young people, immigrants, ethnic minorities, middle class liberals.

The mythology seems to be that Boris is an electoral magician who has crossover appeal to all the types of voters the Tories are completely out of touch with, and that his London performance can be translated onto the national stage, where his charisma would blow out of the water the worthy but dull Labour frontbench with their careful approach to politics honed in years in Whitehall actually running things, or at least advising people who were running things, like some newly launched political Dreadnought battleship blasting away at a fleet of puny gun boats.

The mythology of the political wizard waiting in the wings has been further burnished by Boris’ flirtation with constituency association after constituency association, each of them desperate for him to return to parliament representing their patch. It is hard to imagine any Labour CLP being so willing to give up their choice of candidate to make room for a returning parliamentary celebrity. A Labour Boris would be met by the NEC deeming most of the seats he was interested in All Women Shortlists, and then a skeptical group of activists deciding they didn’t much like carpet-bagging show-offs and would rather have the local council leader who knew every street from canvassing them for the past twenty years.

And what of Boris’ August announcement that he will be coming back as an MP, presumably for Uxbridge, and that he is suddenly a great Euro-sceptic after always having been seen as on the pro-European wing of the party? This kind do presidential style announcement (in the USA it is done to announce you have created an “exploratory committee” for a White House primary bid) looks hubristic beyond belief.

And hubris brings nemesis. As the classicist Mayor Johnson should have been aware.

Just as the court jester, the politician who made his name on Have I Got News For You, steps up to tell Britain that he is going to charm and bumble and joke his way into leadership of the Tory Party and then 10 Downing Street, it turns out the time may not be right to have a comedian write the orders for the use of the strategic nuclear deterrent, or a charming amateur to wing his way through negotiations with Putin or China or the Iranians with quips and back-slapping.

We have suddenly woken up to realise history did not end with the triumph of Western liberal values at the end of the Cold War. History, as the historian in Mayor Johnson must appreciate, is alive, kicking and biting. The conflict in Gaza is just about the least of the crises facing world leaders, what with the IS rampaging genocidally through Iraq, Russia and its armed proxies busy expanding into the “near abroad” and accidentally bringing down passenger jets with casually proliferated missile systems; Libya and Syria in near anarchy.

Such times will require serious leaders, not game show panelists and polemical columnists running for part-time office as an ego trip to upstage their one time student rivals. You can get away with running one city as a bit of a wheeze, supported by able deputies and civil servants. You won’t be able to lead the UK through the economic and life and death geo-strategic dilemmas of the next decade as a dilettante hobby.

And the public knows the putative Emperor has no clothes. YouGov published a survey this week about Boris.

It says the Boris effect is worth just 1% to the Tories as any UKIP voters he gains back are almost offset by existing Tories he loses.

Most damningly, asked for three words to describe Boris, 34% say likeable, 31% entertaining, but 32% say buffoon! Only 7% say competent, and just 1% say statesmanlike.

Dire events around the world show this is a time for statesmen. It is not a time to bring on the clowns. The cavalry the Tories were hoping would ride to their rescue turns out to be viewed by voters as Coco mounted on a unicycle.