Tory MP causes by-election by defecting to UKIP – could others follow?

Douglas Carswell has caused a media storm today by resigning from the Conservative Party and joining UKIP. He has said that he will stand down from the Commons, causing a by-election in Clacton, where he will stand as the candidate for his new party.

This means Carswell is now UKIP’s second ever MP, after 2008’s Bob Spink. Or it means he’s UKIP’s first ever MP, if you listen to Bob Spink who now claims he never joined the party. Or it means UKIP still have never had an MP, if you consider that Carswell has stood down, presumably with immediate effect.

Whichever way, it’s a huge problem for David Cameron – especially as the by-election could end up happening around Conservative Party Conference. Ed Miliband has said the news shows the Tories are “too divided to stand up for hardworking families” (and “divided parties don’t win elections” is a favourite mantra of Tory strategist Lynton Crosby), while Labour MP Michael Dugher has said that the Tories are “divided and running scared of UKIP”.

Labour held Clacton until 2005 (although there have been boundary changes since then), came second in 2010 and already have a candidate in place: the respected leader of the Colchester Labour Group Tim Young. UKIP did not stand a candidate in the last election, so their base of support is difficult to judge. If Carswell took half the Tory vote with him, we could be looking at a three-way marginal with the Conservatives, UKIP and Labour all on a notional 12,000 votes.

However, like the Newark by-election earlier in the summer, the media attention will be almost entirely focussed on a Tory v UKIP fight, leaving Labour on the backfoot. Matthew Goodwin, who has analysed in detail the recent rise in UKIP’s support, has said that his research revealed that Clacton is the “most favourable seat for UKIP” and expects Carswell to win “hands down” both in the by-election and in May next year (see his startling blogpost about Clacton and UKIP from May). With UKIP making significant dents in Labour’s support in many places across the country, we could well see a drop in the Labour vote here.

But are there more right-wing Eurosceptic Tory MPs who could make the jump before next May? UKIP’s treasurer Stuart Wheeler has previously claimed that he has held talk with seven Tory MPs about the possibility of defecting, and two have gone on to have more serious talks with Nigel Farage. Here are some of the possibilities:

Nadine Dorries: A constant thorn in David Cameron’s side, in May she said she was considering standing on a joint Tory-UKIP ticket next year.

Philip Davies: The MP who bombards the Equality and Human Right Commission with letters asking why it’s not okay to black up and thinks disabled people shouldn’t be entitled to the minimum wage is so in tune with UKIP that Farage has said they won’t stand a candidate against him in 2015.

David Nuttall: Like Carswell, Nuttall has been heavily involved in pushing the cross-party Better Off Out campaign inside the Conservatives (he is Chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group) and has said he has “no qualms” about a Tory-UKIP pact. However, he has already come out today to say he will continue to make the case from inside the Tory Party.

John Redwood: Something of a long shot, but the senior backbencher has long been one of the most high-profile Eurosceptics in Parliament. As a former leadership candidate, Cabinet member and head of Thatcher’s Policy Unit in the 1980s, he would be seen as a huge coup for UKIP were he to defect.

On Radio 4’s World At One this lunchtime, Farage even made the claim that there could be Labour MPs considering their party memberships too:

“We’ve spoken to many Tory and Labour MPs over the past few months who support everything UKIP is trying to do.”

Watch this space?