What Scotland requires from Labour right now is energy and clarity

There are just over two weeks left until a decision that will alter Scotland – and Britain – irrevocably and immensely. Many voters have already completed their postal votes, and the campaign is as intense as any Scotland has known.

The impact of a yes vote in the independence referendum would reverberate through the entire nation like an earthquake. Our nation as we currently understand it would cease to exist, a constitutional crisis the likes of which hasn’t been seen for hundreds of years would unfold and the Prime Minister would, in all likelihood, have to resign. The Labour Party – all parties – would be thrown into differing levels of chaos in Scotland, England and Wales.

In Westminster in particular and England in general, it might appear that the major parties are relaxed about such a prospect. Yet in reality they resemble the humble duck – on the surface they’re gliding placidly across the water, but under the surface the legs are paddling wildly. In the Labour Party, organisers have been redeployed from across the UK to work in Scotland in the final weeks (Labour members from across the UK who wish to campaign in Scotland are also being welcomed with open arms by Scottish Labour. So get up to Scotland if you can) . And despite Downing Street’s denials, it’s certain that they’ve wargamed the possible outcomes.

The second debate, and recent polling, will only have heightened the angst. The pressure on campaigners has – if possible – intensified in recent weeks. Today’s YouGov poll suggests movement towards Yes. In most referenda, the status quo begins to gain ground in the final weeks as voters have second thoughts. So far, Scotland has bucked that trend. Memories of the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections (where Labour were expected to win but collapsed in the final weeks under SNP pressure) loom large.

And yet this is no time for knee-jerk responses or panic.  What Scotland – and the No campaign – requires from Labour now is energy and clarity.

Whilst the Better Together campaign may have a positive name, at times it has appeared to many Scottish voters to dwell on the downsides of independence rather than the positives of unity. After years of negative campaigning in Scotland, the voters are becoming somewhat immune to gloom.

The Labour Party must accept some responsibility for that. As the only potential party of government that most Scots would consider voting for, it’s incumbent upon Labour to spell out – clearly – what a Labour government would do for Scotland, and precisely what new powers would be devolved to an independent Scotland. That means specific budget lines, specific tax-varying powers and specific capabilities. Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the second debate was when Darling seemed unable to name three job creating powers that Scotland would gain under enhanced devolution. In a country where jobs is the big issue, that lack of clarity needs resolving.

The last YouGov poll found 18% of 2011 Labour voters would be voting yes. Today’s YouGov poll suggests that figure is now 30%. Labour voters are slipping away from the No campaign, and the Labour Party needs to accept that, and take appropriate action. There was already the risk of an “enthusiasm gap”, with SNP voters being more likely to turn out for their big day than Labour voters (which despite a predicted high turnout, will still be significant). Labour and Better Together cannot afford Labour voters to start losing enthusiasm for the union too.

Labour Party needs to provide an adrenaline shot of energy in these final weeks. A clear, positive and unifying message – backed up by clarity around new powers and a good Get Out The Vote operation – could make all the difference between unity and separatism on September 18^th. It could be the springboard for a successful Labour government or the beginning of an unthinkably difficult time for Britain and Labour alike. Ed Miliband will be visiting Scotland in the days ahead – it is still in his and other Labour hands to choose which of these outcomes in the more likely.