5 things we learned from Labour’s PCC by-election victory

I was genuinely concerned that Labour might lose the South Yorkshire PCC by-election. In recent weeks local MPs and candidates have been privately concerned by what they’d been hearing on the doorstep, and it seemed that there was a groundswell of support for UKIP – with one telling me it was a “perfect storm” for Labour. In the wake of the shocking Rotherham child abuse scandal, Shaun Wright’s resignation from the post (which Labour doesn’t believe in and has pledged to abolish) and a difficult few weeks for the party, there was a real concern that UKIP could win their first Police and Crime Commissioner.

And yet today, Labour have won the PCC by-election with over 50% of the vote, on pretty much the same vote as as in 2012 (when we were riding high in the polls) on a turnout that was only marginally lower.

At a difficult time, this result will come as a small ray of sunshine for the party.

Of course, that this is the case shows the grim position we’re in. South Yorkshire is Labour heartland territory – a victory here should not have been in any doubt – and there’s little to be celebrated about a 15% turnout (lack of interest in the roles is one of the reasons why Labour want to abolish it), but still – set in its context, this is a decent result from the party.

So how did this happen, and what did we learn?

UKIP’s expectation management is dreadful – Nigel Farage said that UKIP had its tanks on Labour’s lawn. They presumably ran out of petrol. To borrow a line from LabourList’s own Conor Pope “UKIP’s approach to expectation management is like those Liverpool fans who start singing “We’re gonna win the league” in August”. They ramped up expectations that they’d win the contest – and said they were pumping money into the area – but they didn’t come close. They claimed that they’d win in Doncaster – but bthey didn’t come close. They claimed (and were believed) when they said they’d win Rotherham – but they couldn’t even win there. In the end they were reduced to calling for a recount despite Labour winning over half of the votes. The UKIP bubble hasn’t burst, but they risk bursting it themselves if they’re not careful.

Labour can win low turnout elections – We have to talk about the turnout. It was dreadful. The PCC by-election can’t be considered a ringing endorsement of the Labour Party or anything else for that matter. People don’t seem to care much for politics and politicians – and they especially don’t care for the artificial and pointless role of Police and Crime Commissioner. Labour HQ won’t be particularly unhappy about the turnout (we want rid of these roles after all) but unfortunately it means the result can’t tell us much politically. However, it can tell us a great deal organizationally. For example, postal votes matter hugely in these kind of elections, and Labour postal vote operation is still far superior to UKIP’s. 80% of those who voted did so by postal vote – that undoubtedly had an impact on the result. Similarly, the party experimented with “proximity” GOTV work, by focusing resources on doorknocking within 100 metres of polling stations (where people are more likely to vote). That’s the sort of organisational work and forethought that can be decisive in tight elections.

Tory performance dreadful (can they win a majority?) – Where on earth were the Tories in this by-election? They only just beat the English Democrats. I know this is hardly Tory territory, but if they want to win a majority they need to put up a decent fight in elections like this, the same as Labour need to put up a fight in places like Rochester and Strood. On this result – for a role they created – there seems little prospect of them winning outright next year.

UKIP are still a threat, because they’re the Anti-Politics Party – Are UKIP more of a threat to the Tories than Labour? In the short term that’s probably the case, but despite Labour’s clear win in this by-election, it’d be wrong to write off the UKIP threat to Labour. They trebled their voteshare compared to three years ago, and are increasingly consolidating themselves as the anti-mainstream politics party. That means hovering up anti-Labour votes in our seats and anti-Tory votes in their seats. Anyone writing off UKIP as a threat to Labour in the North after this is being complacent, there are real parallels with Heywood and Middleton in this result, albeit across a much bigger geographic and political area.

There’s a great deal of anger that Labour must face – moving forwards in South Yorkshire, the priority for incoming PCC Alan Billings must be addressing the child abuse scandal that has rocked the area and the local police force. For such a diabolical culture to exist in an area under Labour control is utterly unacceptable – and has created a real sense of anger in many of the communities we represent. This result in no way absolves Labour of blame or washes away that stain on our record. So we must remain humble today in the face of this small victory, and focus relentlessly on helping the victims of such horrific acts – and preventing such a terrible climate from ever occurring again.