Heywood & Middleton and Clacton by-elections liveblog

Got any tips, insight or gossip about tonight’s two by-elections? Get in touch on Twitter @conorpope or via email [email protected]

02.52: And with that, we’ll close the liveblog. It has not been a good night for Labour. We held a safe seat in a Labour heartland by the skin of our teeth, and dropped to 11% of the vote in another. These are not the results of a party that is connecting with its electorate. They are not the results of a party that can be said is heading for victory in any meaningful sense.

Worse still, it seems many in the Labour Party remain oblivious to the problems we face. I can only hope that when we wake up tomorrow there will be an acceptance that a lot of work still needs to be done.

Thanks for joining me tonight, and thanks for all of the tips and insights. Now let’s work out where we go from here. Goodnight.

– Conor Pope

02.45: In Clacton, Douglas Carswell becomes first elected UKIP MP, improving his majority to 12,404. Tories came second, followed by Labour. We polled 3,957, dropping from 10,799 in 2010.

02.14: Rough estimate from Clacton is 21,000 votes for Carswell, 8,000 for whoever the Tory is. No news on Labour’s Tim Young. That’s a bigger majority than Carswell currently has.

02.08: Here’s the voteshare from Heywood and Middleton:

via Britain Elects

02.01: UKIP’s Diane James claims the party will stand candidates in all 650 seats next year – a huge jump for them. On tonight’s showing, there could be a lot of safe Labour seats, and Labour targets, where UKIP give us a scare. For a deeper look into the phenomenon, it’s worth reading the Fabian pamphlet from Marcus Roberts, Ian Warren and Rob Ford, Revolt on the Left, published last week. You can read it all for free here.

01.57: Think the Clacton result should be confirmed around 2.30.

01.48: Labour are claiming that Heywood and Middleton is a good result because the Labour voteshare increased.

However, it is increased from 40.1% in 2010 to 40.9%. That is not a big increase, and certainly not when you factor in the smaller turnout (we got almost 7,000 fewer votes) and the very small majority (down from 5,971 to 617). All in all, it is a very worrying result for us.

01.46: John Mann MP’s tweets might be worth catching up with this evening. “If Ed Miliband does not broaden the Labour coalition to better include Working class opinion then we cannot win a majority government” seems to be reflected in what ex-Labour voters say.

01.37: At 22.17 I said that a margin of 20 points over UKIP would be good for Labour, and under 10 points would be bad. We won with a margin of 2.1%.

01.27: LABOUR HOLD: The result from Heywood and Middleton is in. 11,016 John Bickley (UKIP), 11,633 Liz McInnes (Labour)

01.25: Should be getting the Heywood and Middleton result any minute now. “Should”.

01.20: Some miscommunication by Rochdale Council: initially said that it was a full recount, now they say it is a bundle check. Much, much quicker.

01.06: It is a full recount in Heywood and Middleton, not just a bundle check as has been claimed. We won’t get a result in the next hour.

Here’s what I’ve been told a UKIP organiser said was the reason: “Doubt we’ll catch up but worth a try and prolong the embarrassment.”

01.01: UKIP deputy leader Paul Nuttall says there’s only 620 votes in it in Heywood and Middleton. If it is a bundle check that’s taking place, we should have a result in half an hour, but if it is a full recount it is going to be a long night.

00.59: The recount has been confirmed and is now underway in Heywood and Middleton.

00.55: UKIP are demanding a recount in Heywood and Middleton, which only usually happens if there’s only a few hundred votes in it. Tonight’s not over yet.

00.48: Could UKIP have come within a thousand votes of Labour in Heywood and Middleton? That’s what the rumours say.

00.43: Murmurs that we could be waiting a long time for the result in Clacton. No one wants this. We all know the result already.

00.38: 35,386 people voted in Clacton, a turnout of 51.2%, down from 43,123 votes and a 64.2% turnout in 2010.

00.35: Nigel Farage has just conceded defeat to Labour in Heywood & Middleton. He says UKIP are “tearing lumps out of the Old Labour vote” and the only reason they have failed to win is that too many people stuck with Conservatives, not realising that UKIP were now the only serious alternative to Labour in the north.

00.27: This is the inside track on Heywood and Middleton: Labour are confident of a win, with an increased voteshare from 2010 and 2014 (as I reported below). “On that sort of swing, we’d win every marginal in the north west”. No one should be surprised by UKIP performance, we’re told, as they did well in this area in May.

In Clacton, Labour will go hard on Tory collapse. Before today, it was their 86th safest seat: and they are going to poll around 20%, down from 53% in 2010.

00.26: Write it on my gravestone:

00.15: The man with the “night off” and lots of experience of Labour Party press briefings has this to say:

00.10: Labour are now briefing that we expect to win Heywood and Middleton, with a voteshare up on 2010 general and 2014 locals.

00.07: Heywood and Middleton result now expected at 1.30am, after previous estimations of 2am and 12.30am.

23.59: Verification process done in Clacton now. Finished in Heywood and Middleton about half an hour ago. Good to have both dine by midnight.

23.53: Labour gain from UKIP! Council by-election in Crawley sees Labour take one of Farage’s “People’s Army”.

23.49: Just so we all have an idea later – the turnout in Heywood and Middleton translates as 28,519 votes. So [CAUTION: STRAINED ARITHMETIC AHEAD] if Labour got 35% of the vote with a 2,000 majority we’d be looking at Labour on around 10,000 and UKIP on 8,000.

23.46: This is from a Labour activist at the count:

This backs up what I’m hearing. A smaller Labour majority of about 2,000 is still expected, so Labour activists feeling a little flat there, while ‘Kippers are buoyant. But want to stress that I have heard nothing at all to suggest UKIP are going to win there. Not yet, anyway.

23.42: Turnout in Heywood and Middleton is 36.02% – down from 57.5% in 2010

23.37: “Half of the candidates” in Clacton have been to the Wetherspoons there today, I am told. Make of that what you will.

23.30: Back to good old predictable Clacton. Labour a couple of points behind the Tories, UKIP will probably get over 50% of the vote and here’s the Lib Dems chances of getting their deposit back.

23.27: Then again… “UKIP activists seems very excited in Heywood”. Looks like it is going to be close enough that there will be plenty of emotional peaks and troughs before we have an idea of what the result will be up north.

23.24: For those worried about that last update, it may not be as bad as it sounds. Some of the strongest wards for UKIP in May’s locals are those being counted first here.

Rochdale’s Mayor thinks the declaration could be earlier than expected, she says 12.30am, rather than the 2am we thought earlier. 12.30 seems a little optimistic, so we can narrow it down to somewhere between the two.

23.05: Labour source in Heywood & Middleton tells me the UKIP are looking “stronger than expected” at first glance.

Meanwhile, UKIP sources are already briefing victory in Clacton, with a turnout of around 50%.

22.57: With Kellner’s prediction, we can now hazard a guess at how UKIP will do in Heywood & Middleton – but how much of a leap will it be for them?

In 2010, they polled just 1,215 votes there – 2.6% of the votes overall (a lost deposit). In this years European elections, they polled 30%: quite strong, but still only the 14th best result for them in the north west. In the local elections on the same day, they stood candidates in eight wards, receiving between 24% and 40%.

22.55: All of the ballot boxes have now arrived at the Clacton count. We’re underway.

22.54: How will the Lib Dems do tonight? They’ve turned themselves into an impressive deposit-losing machine over the past few years: if they fail to reach 5% in tonight’s polls, they will have lost £5,500 worth of by-elections deposit money since 2010.

Is that likely to happen? Yes.

22.47: “You read it here first” claims Guido Fawkes, as they predict a UKIP win in Clacton and a Labour win in Heywood and Middleton, despite the fact that liveblog followers could have seen pretty much exactly that predicted by LabourList readers here at 10pm.

22.45: Peter Kellner of YouGov is predicting a whopping UKIP majority of around 10,000 in Clacton, and a slimmer Labour majority of 2,000 to 3,000 in Heywood and Middleton, which would be down from 5,971 in 2010 (although that was, of course, on a much bigger turnout).

22.37: Will Douglas Carswell become the first UKIP MP tonight?

It’s the mystery of Bob Spink, the Tory MP who defected to UKIP in 2008, then claimed he was an independent as UKIP had no parliamentary whip, then claimed he never joined UKIP at all, then lost his seat to the Tories in 2010. Why does no one remember this political titan?

22.29: “I think Labour will gain Heywood & Middleton tonight,” says neighbouring Labour MP Simon Danczuk on Sky News – but he does expect UKIP’s vote to go up significantly.

22.25: This is interesting – YouGov poll has just come out showing Labour lead at five points: Lab 35%, Con 30%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dem 9%. With the way YouGov polls have been recently, that’s very good news. After a tough week for Miliband, a good poll lead and a decent by-election showing could really calm things down.

22.22: My prayers have been answered. Clacton is expected to declare at around 1.30am, with Heywood and Middleton expected at roughly 2am.

22.17: What are the expectations for Labour? Well, our readers got it about right. Anything less than third in Clacton would be a disaster, anything better than third a great success.

In Heywood and Middleton, it is a little harder to call. At this point, we are certainly expecting to win, and if we don’t it would be time to get to panic stations. But, as we do expect to win, how do we judge a good night?

The polls there have shown Labour on around 50%, with UKIP second on around 30%, but reports on the ground today suggest that it could be a lot closer than that. 20 points seems like a good margin to me, and anything over that very good – if it turns out to be, say, less than a 10 point gap though…

22.00: The polls are closed and our double header super by-election liveblog bonanza is open. Mark Ferguson has the night off, so I’m taking up the reins, and will guide you through the ups and downs until whenever the results come in – if you have any insights, tips or gossip, get in touch on Twitter @conorpope or drop me an email [email protected]

How will Labour do in tonight’s elections? Fortunately, we surveyed LabourList readers on the very subject this week.

After spending some time there earlier this week, I said that Labour are on course to retain the seat – and 87% of you agree. Nearly nine out of ten LabourList readers think Labour candidate Liz McInnes will top the poll tonight, while 10% are predicting a major upset with Labour in second and 3% of you are Dan Hodges see an absolute earthquake with Labour coming in third. One lone person thinks Labour have come in fourth, and absolutely no one believes Labour are in the hotly-contested race for fifth with the Lib Dems and the Greens.

Clacton is, unsurprisingly, a very different story.

The majority of readers see Labour as onlookers in a two-horse race here: 65% say third place, 5% say fourth place and almost 1% believe we’ll be jostling with the Monster Raving Loony Party’s Alan “Howling Laud” Hope (a man who appeared to retreat to the pub even before Nigel Farage today) in the “worse than fourth” category.

On the other hand, 23% see the Conservative vote collapsing and Labour’s Tim Young finishing a respectable second, while 6% of gloriously hopeful LabourList readers can envision a scenario where the right wing vote is split in such a way that Labour sail through the middle to victory. We’ll keep you updated on how that’s panning out.