Labour faces a testing 48 hours in South Yorkshire

Tomorrow there’s a PCC by-election in South Yorkshire. To say that Police and Crime Commissioners are an unloved position would be an understatement. The Labour Party has promised to abolish them, and few voted in the initial elections when they were set up. Predictably, turnout has been poor when it comes to by-elections for these roles – and that’s not expected to change tomorrow.

But with low turnouts come (sometimes) unusual and unpleasant results.

This morning there’s briefing from UKIP that they think they can give Labour “a serious run for their money” in South Yorkshire. Normally I’d be willing to write that off as a party boosting their own chances, but it chimes with what some South Yorkshire MPs and candidates have been telling me in private over the past few weeks. One described a low-turnout PCC by-election – in the wake of Shaun Wright’s belated and ignominious resignation combined with Labour’s recent downturn in the polls – as a “perfect storm”, that could potentially deliver this otherwise safe Labour area for UKIP.

So how bad would a UKIP win be for Labour? On one hand, it’s a by-election for a position few care about – this isn’t a parliamentary by-election. However, if we’re unable to turn Labour people out in an area where we’re traditionally very strong, that’s a real concern (postal vote turnout is likely to play a big role in our performance here).

Equally worrying though is that PCC by-election results can be broken down by parliamentary constituency. That means for example in Rotherham (where there have been major child protection failures overseen by a Labour-run council) and Doncaster (where Ed Miliband is an MP), UKIP will be seeking to maximise their vote to try and give the party an embarrassing bloody nose, regardless of the overall result.

We’ll bring you the results from the count on Friday.