New poll shows the scale of the challenge facing Labour in Scotland

A new poll for the Daily Record shows the scale of the challenge facing new leader of Scottish Labour, Jim Murphy.

The poll conducted by Survation asked 1,000 people who they would be backing at the general election next year. 48% of those asked said they would most likely vote SNP – which puts the party two points up since November. While support for Labour – with 24% of people backing them – hasn’t changed. The Tories are down one point, on 16%; as are the Lib Dems on 5%, closely followed by Ukip with 4% and the Greens on 1%.

The poll also looked at how Murphy’s appointment as leader affected peoples’ voting intentions. 14% said Murphy make them more likely to vote Labour, while 18% said he made them less likely to do so. Overall, though, it seems Murphy’s new role has little affect on voting intentions – 57% said Murphy made no difference to how they would vote.

However, the news isn’t all bad. 25% of those asked think Labour will be more successful with Murphy as leader whereas 16% think they won’t be.

What’s more, Murphy’s plan to appeal to voters from all parties – as he outlined in his victory speech – seems like it could be somewhat successful. 28% of Labour voters, 14% of Tory voters and 22% of Lib Dems voter said they were more likely to vote Labour now Murphy is leader of Scottish Labour. And 30 % of Labour voters and 37% of Tory voters said they thought Scottish Labour will be more successful with Murphy as leader – this is particularly promising for Murphy, especially as 3% of Labour voters and 8% of Tories said that the party would be less successful.

As for SNP voters – 21% of those likely to vote SNP say they would seriously consider voting Labour. But a similar number (19%) of those who said they were intending to vote Labour said they’d seriously consider voting SNP, implying over the next couple of months a lot could change.

John Curtice commented on these results, explaining:

“Murphy is not the magic bullet. It is going to require more than a new kid on the block – he has to persuade people that May is not a re-run of the referendum.”