Tory arrogance on the economy has left a big opportunity for Labour today

Time is running out for Labour on the economy, but a great opportunity has opened up today.

It may not look like it; a lot of this week’s polling on the economy does not make for good reading. Not only do Cameron and Osborne lead on making economic decisions, but even Nigel Farage commands more confidence to guide the UK economy than Miliband and Balls. The worst news? People think they’ll be personally better off with the Tories in charge.

That the “Cost of Living Crisis” has not afforded Labour a lead on that last issue is concerning. Even when trailing on economic competence, convincing people you can make the money in their pocket go that little bit further can guide you to election victory. Just ask David Axelrod.

With wages stagnating and our polices on controlling rents, freezing energy prices and cutting the starting income tax rate, winning the cost of living argument should not be a problem. The trouble we face is that our failure to convince on the economy as a wider issue is causing a drag: the two topics are intrinsically linked. You can’t win on the cost of living if you aren’t trusted on the economy. You can’t ask people “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” if they suspect “Morning in America” won’t follow.

Labour’s opportunity comes from Conservative complacency. Their huge leads on polling of economic competence belies the level of public trust in them to handle the public finances. Their -20% score on making the right economic decisions shows that people are not buying into their long-term economic plan. That 52% do not think the Government have got the deficit under control (compared to 20% who do) shows that their one major economic argument has failed to land.

And of course it has failed to land. After claiming the deficit would be gone come the election, they are nowhere near eliminating the deficit.

Yet the Tories have come to believe this does not matter. They think they have an unassailable lead and this is where the complacency has started to set in. It is why Cameron felt bullish enough to announce billions in tax cuts during his conference speech, and why Osborne has planned for a vote tying the next government to eliminate the deficit by 2018.

This has been heralded as a clever trap for Labour, further proof of Osborne’s strategic genius. Actually, it is where the opportunity for Labour arises. In pushing this vote, he has laid a trap for himself. This is a chancellor who cannot keep to his own targets – why should he expect to be able to set them for anyone else? Why did he not tie his own government to eliminate the deficit by 2015, as he promised?

Ed Balls has been given the chance to change the narrative on the deficit. Making clear that to balance a budget you cannot just set a date for it to be done and then start planning for afterwards. Everyone wants to be chancellor in the good times, and it seems that Osborne is so bored of being the austerity champion that he has convinced himself that people will automatically trust him to finish the job. This has left an opportunity for Labour. If we can start to win a little ground back now, starting with the Autumn Statement today, the Tories could be in big trouble.