7 things Labour can learn from British Future’s “year of uncertainty” report

British Future have a new report out today, called “The year of uncertainty” that seeks to discover where the nation stands before the most unpredictable general election in a generation.

The report is fascinating and well worth a read (you can find it here), but there are some findings from their ICM polling that are especially pertinent to the Labour Party. I’ve picked out seven findings that Labour MPs, activists and strategists need to be aware of:

1. More people hope to see Labour out of government than in government – lets start with the bad news. Whilst 30% of the electorate would like to see Labour in government, 39% hope that they are not in government. Others are indifferent, or don’t know. Whilst that means there’s still people up for grabs, it suggests a lack of widespread enthusiasm.

2. More people think the Tories will be in government than Labour – More bad news – asked to predict whether the parties will be in government, 43% think it is more likely than not that Labour will be in the government, but 54% think it is more likely than not that the Conservatives will be in. Some of that may be down to who is in government at the moment, but it looks like the electorate expect a Tory win, regardless of what the polls say.

3. But most Labour supporters do think Labour will win – In fact, the report found that supporters of each party expect their party to be part of the next government. But is this confidence, confusion or confirmation bias?

4. Scottish voters lack much enthusiasm about a Labour government – Only 29% of Scots would like Labour to be in government after the election; 37% would prefer they were not; and 23% don’t mind. But most Scots are clear that they want both the Conservatives (57%) and the LibDems (54%) to be out. So if the debate because about who is best placed to kick the government out, Labour will hope to take advantage. (Note: this polling was conducted in December, before the recent swing back to Labour).

5. But more than half of all UK voters say they could see themselves voting Labour – the only party to command over 50% –  51% of voters across Britain say they could vote Labour, while 38% say they could never do so.  That makes Labour the only party that most voters can imagine themselves voting for, compared to 47% for the Conservatives, 42% for Ukip, 36% for the LibDems and 36% for the Greens. We have a large potential voter pool, if only we can harness it.

6. There’s no desire to see the Lib Dems back in government: Only 11% want the Liberal Democrats to be in the next government – so there’s hardly a clamour from the British people to see them back in coalition after May. Among Labour voters, 52% don’t want the LibDems in office again, but 40% are not opposed to the LibDems (9% would like this; 31% don’t mind) being part of the next government. So whilst most Labour voters would prefer to keep Clegg and co out of power, it’s not a universally held opinion.

7. UKIP voters are optimistic / delusional – Just to show that supporters of political parties can believe things that don’t accord with facts or reason, lets take a look at what UKIP voters think there party’s prospects are. A whopping 67% of UKIP supporters think their party will be in government after the 2015 election – perhaps swept up by the People’s Army rhetoric and Farage’s media appearances. But how likely is that? And if they don’t get into government, will UKIP supporters still back them? Even more remarkable is the following figure, which I’m struggling to see any explanation for other than sheer delusion – 24% of UKIP supporters think Nigel Farage will be Prime Minister next year. He won’t be, thankfully, but that just goes to show how irrational and subjective people’s views often are…