It’s good to talk

Ed won’t talk to Nicola. Nicola won’t talk to David and neither will Natalie nor Leanne. Nick won’t to Nigel but David might.

Welcome to the playground of British politics in 2015. The mainstream politicians dress up as if they’re going to win outright but the jackets and dresses are way too big and no one takes any of them seriously. All the action will come after 7^th May – not before.  This lunacy is what happens when multi party complexity is rammed into a two party constitution.

Come 8^th of May, when so many votes will have been cast in vain, and NOC (no overall control) knocks on the door, the reality is that just about everyone will talk to anyone. For the next four months it’s a democratic charade the politicians are playing to the obvious bewilderment of the country – a game of musical chairs that has no chairs. So we have to plan now for what happens when the music stops and no has a seat.

Then, for Cameron and Ed becoming PM will be all or nothing. Their political lives will be on the line – either success or abject failure based on whether they can cut a deal. Any deal. Whether it’s a full-blown coalition or confidence and supply isn’t the main issue – there are tactical and strategic advantages and disadvantages to both. What matters is a sense of willingness to compromise and negotiate in good faith. And so what is totally and completely unavoidable will be the need to talk and build cross party agreements on single policies or a programme for government. It means sharing power and accepting that pluralism is now the order of the day.

The cultural challenge to Labour from this is huge. From the right to left the dominant objective is the re-creation of either 1945 or 1997 i.e. a single party majority Labour government. Many, as we saw in 2010, would rather give up on any hold on power than compromise with other parties. Lets call them the Wilderness Tendency.

Speaking to someone senior in Labour’s ranks recently I suggested it might be a good to have an under the radar chat with the SNP given the likelihood of NOC. The response was ‘but they are an existential threat to Labour’. ‘Exactly’ was my reply. The existential threat is there – in Greece PASOK refused to change and is now irrelevant. The same fate looks like it could await the PSOE in Spain given the rise of Podemos. No Social democratic party anywhere in the world has proved it has the ability to adapt to the twin challenges of economic and political ossification. That’s doesn’t mean they can’t. It does mean it’s tough.

Our electoral system is rotting before us. Either Labour gets out from under it and sets a new democratic architecture and political culture in which the future is negotiated, because it cant be imposed, or it will also become irrelevant.  But accepting that the future will be plural and not singular doesn’t dilute our belief in a good society, rather it makes the essential link between means and ends. The way we build it – open, democratic and egalitarian – reflects the way we want that society to be. There is no short cut. There never was.

So we are going to have to start talking and thinking hard about issues like tactical voting if we want to keep the Tories out. If we get that right then Trident, austerity, public ownership of rail, the abolition of tuition fees and yes the electoral system are all on the table. For Ed, the Party and the country the choice could be this or the Tories.

Everyone who wants a good society is going to have to grow up, be more open, honest and humble. Left Liberal Democrats are going to have to be honest about whether they will personally back the Tories again. The Greens are going to have to decide whether they want to bump up their share of the vote up or stop the Tories getting back in. Labour supporters will have to decide whether a Liberal Democratic is better than a Tory (rationally a no brainer when most are not Orange Bookers).

And all of them are going to have to talk – building trust and understanding in advance of NOC. Because that’s what a Tory, UKIP, DUP alliance will be doing. If they are better at talking then we can kiss goodbye to the BBC, the NHS, growth and any sense of equality.

All of this and more will be discussed at the Compass conference Change: How? on 8^th Feb. Come and talk with people you know like Peter Hain and Lisa Nandy and to different people about how radical politics can be – it’s the future.