Have the Tories given up on making the sums add up?

Last month’s budget was a bit underwhelming if I’m honest – not because of what Osborne announced, but because of what he didn’t. For years I’d been waiting for the big pre-election giveaway – a cut in the basic rate of income tax perhaps or a Tory hobbyhorse like an inheritance tax cut.

But when the budget came around, there was no such blatant electioneering giveaway. I must admit I was quietly impressed. I assumed that the Tories were going to run their election campaign on economic competence, and that they’d use their lack of spending commitments as a badge of honour.

And that was what I assumed was still happening, until a couple of days ago – when George Osborne gave up on making the sums add up.

First there was the commuter-friendly announcement on a rail fare freeze (that isn’t actually freeze – and which the Tories themselves had attacked as “Marxist” when Miliband tried something similar). There was no explanation of what impact this will have on transport spending, or who – government or train companies – will foot the bill.

Then the was the announcement that the Tories want big companies and the public sector to pay for three days of volunteering time each year. Is that you “Big Society”? We assumed you’d been packed off to California with Steve Hilton’s flip flops. It’s not a bad plan in principle – except, it will cost the public sector a ton of cash when every civil servant, teacher, doctor, nurse, fireman and police officer takes three extra days out of the office, won’t it? The Tories haven’t explained how that would be paid for either.

By this point the Labour Party were publicly drawing attention to the Tories unfunded promises (this video is pretty effective on that score), but privately they’re incredulous. After years of Labour policies – all painstakingly costed to avoid claims that Labour is being profligate – being submitted to rigorous cross-examination by opposition and press alike, the Tories are attempting to swan in just a few weeks before the election with a load of promises funded by nothing more than George Osborne saying ‘trust me’ and expect the benefit of the doubt.

And that was all before Osborne’s article in the Guardian (he’s trolling the Labour Party now isn’t he?) claiming that the Tories will pay whatever is necessary to fund the NHS. £8 billion? £20 billion? Whatever it takes, he claims. There’s no plan for funding the health service outlined. We’re expected to take his proclamation on faith alone.Poor Jeremy Hunt looked like he was struggling to breathe when he was asked to explain how the Tories would fund £8 billion more spending this morning.

Presumably this means even bigger cuts in other departments (nevermind cutting to the bone, we’d be talking about slicing into the marrow at this point) – or it means Osborne is talking cobblers and won’t give the NHS a blank cheque at all. And lets not forget – NHS spending as a percentage of GDP has fallen since the Tories came to power (source: Anita Charlesworth, Chief Economist at the Nuffield Trust / the OBR):

Oh – and it’s only three months since David Cameron was saying at PMQS that “unfunded spending commitments” would “wreck the NHS”. It seems George Osborne missed this – despite being sat next to him at the time.

A plan to cut train fares, give everyone more time to volunteer or splash the cash on the NHS sounds great, but is utterly meaningless if you can’t explain how you’d pay for it. Osborne is acting like your mate who always gets a round of drinks in, says he can afford it, but has a drawer stuffed full of overdue credit card bills at home. His card is going to get declined, but he hopes you won’t notice until it’s too late.

Instead of using their lack of spending commitments as a badge of honour – but they’ve done the opposite. They’re running a fundamentally dishonest campaign – first by attacking Labour for plans they don’t have, and now by making uncosted spending pledges that they can’t possibly keep. They’re relying on their significant lead on economic competence to spend magical mystery invisible money, whilst claiming it’s Labour that would borrow more or put up your taxes.

And the troubling truth for Labour is that even with eternal vigilance and strong rebuttal – Osborne might get away with giving up on making the sums add up, because the lead they have on the economy is large enough that they can afford to fritter a significant amount of it away.