Crunch time in the deputy leadership race – who will make the ballot?

This is an updated version of what appeared in this morning’s LabourList email. You can sign up to receive it daily here.

Another day, another deadline. At high noon today, the nominations window closes on the deputy leadership hopefuls.

As things stand, two have over 35 nominations are certain to be on the ballot: Tom Watson and Caroline Flint. A further four are vying it out for the backing of remaining MPs: Rushanara Ali, Ben Bradshaw, Stella Creasy and Angela Eagle. However, given the large numbers supporting Watson (and, to a lesser extent, Flint), it is only mathematically possible for three more to make the cut. Practically, (with leadership candidates, Harriet Harman, Rosie Winterton and Ed Miliband all unlikely to back anyone) only two can get on.

Realistically, it looks more like none of them will make it unless someone pulls out – something I understand has been stressed to the candidates by the Powers That Be. However, no one is willing to blink first. They all have similar numbers behind them, and all lay claim to a unique pitch. We’re expecting a few more nominations shortly, which could change the face of it, but at the moment it looks like we’ll still be waiting for the first to blink when PMQs start at 12.

We’ll be updating our list of nominations as they come through here.

Only a couple of MPs have put in nominations this morning, and it is not yet clear who they have backed – although rumours suggest Creasy is up to 30. The general feeling seems to be that it might now be too late for any of the candidates to bother retreating – there is barely enough time for supporters to switch their allegiances. “Resolve is stiffening,” once source told me, before adding: “This is the most bizarre election I’ve ever been involved in.”

Then, at 7pm on BBC Two, the candidates in the leadership race will take part in a televised debate. Its is being held in Nuneaton, which was the first Labour target seat announced on election night. They failed to gain it, and the weight of the loss (the Tories had a majority of almost 5,000) was what convinced many that things were going to turn out as badly as the exit poll suggested.

Tonight will be more potential than pitfall. No candidate will be condemned to defeat on the basis of their performance tonight, but a good showing could completely change the way the contest is perceived. The one with most to gain is probably Liz Kendall, who remains the biggest unknown. She has got the endorsement of defeated Nuneaton candidate Vicky Fowler on LabourList today.

We’ll have immediate news and analysis of the debate on the site this evening.

Following Monday’s “Talibangate”, Yvette Cooper’s campaign have issued a pledge that they will not anonymously brief against any other candidate. It’s a welcome promise, as any campaign that triumphs by demeaning their rivals will leave Labour in a worse state of affairs – but will it prove possible to police?