Grassroots back Corbyn despite fears over deficit in polls

The majority of Labour members approve of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership even though many do not believe it will lead to electoral success.

The Labour leader has an approval rating on 55 per cent from Labour members, but 41 per cent believe that he is unlikely to win a general election, data released today shows.

The data come from the second part Election Data’s polling carried out by YouGov, with yesterday’s data showing members’ support of Corbyn on key issues. The polling was commissioned by data expert Ian Warren, who was hired by Labour in 2014 to provide seat-by-seat analysis and forecasts, particularly in areas where UKIP was a perceived threat.

Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the party appears secure, with two-thirds in favour of him taking Labour into 2020. 63 per cent believe that he should stay to fight the general election, a number that only drops to 53 per cent if Labour does poorly in this May’s elections.

Any challenges to Corbyn’s leadership from within the PLP would be unlikely to succeed: were there to be another leadership contest, Corbyn would be the clear winner. On a long list of candidates he would win 43 per cent of first preferences, which would likely translate to a clear victory. On a short list of Labour big names, Corbyn’s share of the vote increases to 63 per cent.

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell would command most support in a leadership election if Corbyn was not standing. McDonnell performs poorly when Jeremy’s name is included on the ballot paper, but without him receives a significant boost, becoming members’ favourite. Were neither, more say they would not vote than show a preference for another candidate, showing the breadth of support for the leadership’s direction.

23 per cent of the membership even say they would leave the party if Corbyn was removed before the general election. While this is not a majority, it would be a huge blow to the party morale and finances, marking an exodus of around 100,000 people.

Speaking out against Corbyn is also unlikely to bring favour with members. 63 per cent of members disapprove of MPs publicly criticising the leader, making it harder to mount any leadership challenge.

The third part of the data will be published tomorrow, which will combines analysis of the previous two sections.