As Britain enters article 50 negotiations, the Labour has hardened its position on the final outcome. Keir Starmer has a set of principles to hold the Tories to account. The vision is good, but until we get towards the end the devil will be in the detail.
The prime minister has so far shown disdain to the opposition by brushing Labour off. A commanding knowledge of the issues will hold them to account. By pinning them down on point after point, this will either draw the Tories into the conversation so we can attack them, or else it will will expose their lack of plan. Perhaps both.
Either way an active approach to the facts will allow Labour to set the agenda while exposing Tory hypocrisy. With this in mind, below is a list of issues that will arise in the coming months. The more expert the Labour MPs become, the more credible we will be at the next election.
1. Financial contributions – Like Norway, the government has already indicated they are willing to pay contributions to the EU budget after we leave. Perhaps £350m a week? Who knows? The Tories are vulnerable to broken promises, having stood upon a soapbox of honouring their promise to the British people, so we should be ruthless on this.
2. Border bureaucracy – The smooth flow of goods is essential to our economy where “Just In Time” is the norm, especially since much of our manufacturing is integrated with Europe. A slowdown of supply chains by customs paperwork could damage the reputation of our most important companies. An article elsewhere referred to the journey of a crankshaft of a Mini. It is cast in France, treated in England, then sent to Germany to be installed in the engine, then the engine comes to England to be assembled in the finished car. At each point in that journey it may arrive just hours before it is needed.
3. Border tariffs – Paying a customs tax on all exports to the EU is likely. WTO tariffs are 10%, so we should aim to have tariffs far lower than this. It’s important to recognise that the reason the Tories are unconcerned with the threat of tariffs, is because of the fall in Sterling. If Sterling is 20% cheaper, then a 10% border tariff is no real threat. However, foreign exchange rates tend to fall suddenly, following a shock such as the referendum, then slowly come back up. If Sterling appreciates, then our exports will be at a disadvantage. So Labour must point out that our exchange rate is floating, but tariffs are permanent.
4. Trade bodies – Industry standards are often invisible barriers of protectionism. If Rolls Royce develop a new alloy that allows their engines to remain cooler for longer at high power, then this innovation will give them an advantage. However, if the industry standards disallow that alloy, then Rolls will have a massively smaller market. If other manufacturers are members of the trade body, and Britain is not, they will disallow whatever they choose. It is essentially to keep our membership on the trade bodies for aerospace, cars, chemicals, banking, and others.
5. Banking passports – The ability of banks to do business in Europe will affect the number of jobs banks export to the EU. These are ordinary people, and members of the Unite union. The EU needs the City of London as well, so hopefully we can find a compromise. Sadiq Khan has already been making this point.
6. Immigration agreements – The biggest promise of the referendum was restrictions on immigration. David Davies has since been running around Europe promising to keep the doors open. The EU will want to know exactly what the numbers are, which will cause some embarrassment to May’s government. We should enjoy this spectacle. We should hammer them hard for breaking their biggest promise with this.
7. Finally, the Brexit break up bill. A figure of £50bn has been calculated for what we will have to pay the EU to cover pension liabilities and our commitments to various projects across the continent including road building in places like Poland. The Brexiteers never promised this and people are usually shocked when they are told of this potential bill. This is the first issue that will come up. Labour should be merciless in the allegation of incompetence against the Tory government if they appear willing to pay, while hospitals and schools face cuts. It is shocking. We should oppose.
Party members are encouraged to see the aggression of Keir Starmer’s comments in recent days. We want to see the party attack, attack, attack this Conservative government. Only by ruthlessly holding them to the facts can we effectively expose them for the u-turning, dishonest rabble that they are.
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