There’s a rocky road ahead for the Tories. But it’s a tricky time for Corbyn too

Sign up to LabourList’s morning email for everything Labour, every weekday morning.

The government now has a draft EU withdrawal agreement. A big moment, yes, but this is just the beginning. Ministers last night had one-to-ones in No10 where they could read the key documents and Penny Mordaunt, widely thought of as the most likely to resign (#PMforPM is a thing amongst Tory Brexiteers) will take her turn this morning. Theresa May will have to get sign off from her cabinet, which meets at 2pm today with that aim, while the other EU countries must concur that the draft is complete enough to merit a summit in November. The EU summit must go well, then so must the Prime Minister’s pitch to parliament and country, before presenting the withdrawal agreement to MPs for approval.

There are hazards and potential pitfalls all the way along this path to getting the withdrawal deal secured. That precarious journey should be a good thing for Labour, but instead it looks to be a difficult time – particularly over the next few days. The draft agreement has not been published, but we know Labour can’t support it. Though there are MPs who fear a no-deal Brexit, and others who fear the optics of ignoring the 2016 result, the majority and particularly the leadership simply could not prop up a Tory government. But this leaves Labour spokespeople looking a bit silly, as the media rounds this morning showed.

Jeremy Corbyn’s initial reaction was fair enough. “We will look at the details of what has been agreed when they are available,” the leader said. “But from what we know of the shambolic handling of these negotiations, this is unlikely to be a good deal for the country. Labour has been clear from the beginning that we need a deal to support jobs and the economy – and that guarantees standards and protections. If this deal doesn’t meet our six tests and work for the whole country, then we will vote against it.” Under further scrutiny, however, opposition frontbenchers start to crumble as interviewers point out that May’s temporary customs union arrangement is pretty much what Labour has been advocating. It’s a tough gig, explaining why they oppose something that looks closer to Labour’s proposals than expected without being able to highlight the finer problematic details. Even when the documents are published, that’ll be 500 pages to comb through.

There is much excitement ahead of PMQs this afternoon, which precedes the crunch cabinet meeting. But there are no big resignations to mock so far. Although Brexiteer complaints of turning the country into a “vassal state” could be highlighted, such criticism would apply equally to Labour’s plans. The backstop is the Prime Minister’s obvious weak point, and yet the same customs arrangement would likely have had to be put forward under Labour. This is a politically dangerous period for May, but also a tricky one for Corbyn to navigate.

Sienna @siennamarla

Sign up to LabourList’s morning email for everything Labour, every weekday morning.