What does a Tory no-confidence vote in May’s leadership mean for Labour?

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Another quiet day in Westminster. This morning, it was confirmed that 48 Tory MPs have sent letters of no confidence in Theresa May and a vote on her leadership will take place tonight. I said in yesterday’s morning email: “She has delayed the meaningful vote to delay a leadership election, but that contest may be on its way regardless.” The loss of goodwill and trust caused by that deferral, plus the feeble promises of EU “reassurances”, indeed became the last straw and the threshold was reached. Speaking outside No10 today, the Prime Minister said she will contest the vote “with everything I’ve got”, so the battle for the future of Brexit is on.

To quickly run through the process: between 6pm and 8pm tonight, in Committee Room 14 (with the entire lobby waiting outside), the Conservative parliamentary party will vote on whether to keep its leader. If a simple majority of MPs oppose May’s leadership, she cannot stand in the election that follows. If less than half vote against her, May stays and Tory MPs cannot trigger another contest for 12 months.

Cabinet ministers (and potential future candidates, because “he who wields the knife never wears the crown”) have quickly taken to the airwaves to express their support, but this is a secret ballot. The consensus forming is that she’ll win nonetheless – the speed of the vote is in her favour, and she has a few scare tactics, including her warning that a successor would have to “delay or even stop Brexit”. If the winning majority is very slim, we don’t know whether May would opt to limp along, ‘tis but a scratch’-style, or choose to stand down. ConservativeHome cites precedent (i.e. Thatcher/Heseltine in 1990) to predict that she would have to resign, but a lack of authority hasn’t stopped May clinging on to power so far.

What does this mean for Labour? Well, the leadership is feeling pretty pleased with its decision not to call a vote of no confidence in the government. The pressure applied by Labour MPs and other opposition parties to do just that was immense yesterday, but the leader’s office held its nerve. And by holding off, Jeremy Corbyn let the Tories tear themselves apart. As Barry Gardiner said on Radio 4’s Today: “Had we done it yesterday, we would have galvanised more people to support the Prime Minister.”

Whatever the outcome of the vote tonight, the optics for the governing party are terrible. Commenting on the news, party chair Ian Lavery said: “The Conservative party’s internal divisions are putting people’s jobs and living standards at risk.” Their behaviour taps into the impression many voters have that politicians are squabbling amongst themselves in their Westminster bubble, not addressing the real issues being faced by ordinary people on a day-to-day basis. That point will no doubt be rammed home at PMQs, which is essential viewing today.

Sienna @siennamarla

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