Why Jeremy Corbyn will call for a People’s Vote before January ends

For some Remainers, who in the last two and a half years have found themselves alienated from the political establishment, Jeremy Corbyn is every bit as much to blame for Brexit as Theresa May – for all that she resembles Captain Edward Smith on the bridge of the Titanic refusing to countenance any course but full steam ahead – and as much as David Cameron, the architect who in all his hubris could never imagine he could design a ship that might sink.

As a Corbyn supporter, I know that this is unfair. Brexit was not his doing; the disastrous negotiations not his responsibility. But as a Remainer, I can understand the frustrations of some who see the government’s position and credibility unravelling faster by the day while the Labour leadership’s position holds firm to the letter of conference policy in refusing to throw its weight immediately and unreservedly behind a People’s Vote. This is why a few months ago I brought a motion to Hounslow Council that saw ours become one of the first local authorities in the country to call for a People’s Vote. And it’s why, as a result of that motion, we wrote not just to Theresa May, but also to Jeremy Corbyn in full recognition of the fact that he holds one of the biggest keys to enabling a referendum on whether we should exit under May’s deal or change course and stay in the EU.

A lot has changed since then, however. Enough that I now believe Jeremy Corbyn will back a People’s Vote before the month is out. Theresa May’s deal returns to parliament today, when it will be voted down. After that, Corbyn will call a vote of no confidence in the government and try to push as swiftly as possible for his stated aim of a general election. As much as I want to see the Tories ejected from power and an end to the crippling years of austerity that have pushed millions into foodbanks and helped fuel the flames of Brexit in the first place, I do not believe Tory rebels will vote for an election that could see Corbyn in Downing Street.

Things will move pretty swiftly, and Labour – with cross-party support – has already laid the groundwork to set in motion the chain of events that will see it come out in support of a People’s Vote. Corbyn was never going to support a no-deal Brexit and if May thought she could use that as a threat to bully Remainers in parliament into backing her deal, that weapon was significantly blunted last week when Tory rebels joined Labour MPs to vote for an amendment to the Finance Bill that showed there is a parliamentary majority opposed to no deal.

In a second government defeat within 24 hours, MPs voted to compel the government to come up with a ‘Plan B’ within three sitting parliamentary days of May’s deal being voted down. This aims to stop the Prime Minister running down the clock. MPs will then be able to put forward their own alternatives by seeking to amend her revised plan. It is at this point that the People’s Vote campaign want to see MPs put forward an amendment calling for a second referendum. And it’s at this point Corbyn is most likely to play the last and strongest card September’s Labour conference smuggled up his sleeve, and throw Labour’s weight behind breaking the parliamentary deadlock by going back to the public in a fresh referendum.

As an ardent democrat and firm believer in the power of bottom-up, grassroots politics, Corbyn knows the overwhelming strength of feeling in our party. While the party stands firmly behind its leader, polls show that 72% of members want him to support a People’s Vote, and 88% would back Remain. Corbyn, of course, is intensely aware that it’s not just party members and activists whose opinion he has to factor in, but the swathes of voters in left-behind Labour seats who voted to Leave and in whose eyes politicians must not be seen to be betraying the ‘will of the people’. But he will also be aware that the ground is shifting as May’s deal unravels, and the promises people were sold by the Leave campaign increasingly bear no resemblance to the reality of Brexit. Now a majority of voters in all seats held by Labour back a People’s Vote.

Jeremy Corbyn may, in his heart of hearts, be a Eurosceptic. He may, quite rightly, recognise the democratic deficit within the EU and decry its more neoliberal elements. But, above all, he is a lifelong champion of the poor, and as a champion of the poor he will know that leaving the EU under a Tory government, with a deal or without one, can only serve to make the poor poorer. That is why, before February 1st, Corbyn will back a People’s Vote and why, if as is looking increasingly likely, the question of Brexit is thrown back to the public, he will campaign on a platform of remain and reform. I and hundreds of thousands of Labour members will be right there with him.

Salman Shaheen is councillor for Isleworth, chair of the Labour Group on Hounslow Council and a journalist.