Johnson’s continued leadership of the Tory Party is now firmly out of his hands

Boris Johnson’s lockdown partying has given rise to another investigation. This time, the privileges committee will look into allegations that he misled parliament in his earlier responses to the ‘partygate’ row. That makes three investigations, also counting the Met Police and Sue Gray. Labour’s motion to force an inquiry was passed unopposed by MPs yesterday. As an indication of quite how big a victory the opposition party feels this to be, Keir Starmer was seen in parliament’s Strangers’ Bar buying a round of drinks for staffers following the debate. Contrast this with the apparent unravelling of the Tory Party, and this has been a very good week for Labour.

A government amendment to yesterday’s motion, which would have delayed the decision on whether the committee should investigate until after Sue Gray’s report on partygate has been published, was withdrawn at the last minute. Tory whips had reportedly underestimated the extent of opposition within the party. Long-term critics of the Prime Minister William Wragg and Anthony Mangnall reiterated their views on the matter during the debate, with Wragg saying: “It is utterly depressing to be asked to defend the indefensible.” And Steve Baker pulled his support for the Prime Minister yesterday, with the senior Tory backbencher telling MPs the “gig is up” and that Johnson “should be long gone”.

Staunch Johnson supporter Conor Burns was rolled out for the broadcast round this morning, showing just how wounded the Prime Minister is currently feeling. True to form, Burns told Sky News he did not believe that Johnson lied: “What I believe is the Prime Minister told the House what he believed to be the truth in good faith at each stage.” This defence – that Johnson only became aware that the gatherings in Downing Street, some of which he attended, may have broken the rules as the story was gradually broken by the media – beggars belief. The Prime Minister and the wider public may have differing ideas on what constitutes a ‘party’ (he was a member of the notorious Bullingdon Club during his university days, after all) but 30 people gathering with cake to sing you happy birthday seems pretty clear cut. Even if the event in June 2020 lasted “less than ten minutes”, as No 10 claimed, restrictions at that time banned most indoor gatherings involving more than two people. And, as people have pointed out, that ten minutes was ten more than many had with their dying loved ones during lockdown.

The political balance has flipped again. Where the Ukraine conflict had largely pushed partygate from the headlines, Johnson’s position has rapidly destabilised since he and Rishi Sunak were issued with fines. The upcoming local elections, and the Wakefield by-election, will be key tests for the Prime Minister. If he is shown to be an electoral liability, having been viewed as an asset in this area for so long, Tory opposition to his leadership will likely intensify. Senior Tory MP Stephen Hammond said of the upcoming by-election: “It’d be quite a concern for colleagues if we didn’t win it and win it well.” The coming weeks and months are dangerous territory for Johnson. He confidently asserted yesterday that “of course” he is determined to lead the Tories into the next general election. In reality, this is now out of his hands.