Exclusive: Labour on target to lose Dagenham and Rainham, Cruddas warns

Jon Cruddas MP has warned Labour’s London regional office that the party is set to lose the Dagenham and Rainham parliamentary seat based on an analysis of its performance in the local elections earlier this month, LabourList can reveal.

In a letter to London region, seen by LabourList, the MP wrote that “the local elections were not as successful as is being sometimes suggested and because of this we have serious concerns about the retention of the seat”.

Attaching a basic analysis of the 2022 election results against a 2019 general election turnout, Cruddas told the party’s regional staff that the Conservatives would take the constituency from Labour – overturning the party’s 293-vote majority and securing the seat by a margin of 1,157 votes.

The MP argued that while Labour’s vote share increased in the majority of wards in the 2022 council elections, the absolute number of votes cast for the party went down while the Conservatives “enjoyed a near 100% vote retention across all wards in Dagenham”. Labour lost approximately 1800 votes while the Tories lost 350.

“It is true that low turnout has historically impacted Labour votes. However, it has not been helped by policies being forced through by Barking and Dagenham Council, which disproportionately damage the Labour brand in the marginal east side of the borough, in my constituency,” Cruddas wrote.

He cited the “indiscriminate” implementation of controlled-parking zones, and told the regional party headquarters in London that his “warnings were ignored” and that there was a “total failure of the political leadership and three chief executives to engage in discussion with me over the issue”.

Cruddas also alleged that the leader of the council, Darren Rodwell, had “acted as the self-appointed campaign organiser” for the entirety of Barking and Dagenham since 2018 “without consultation with our CLP and to damaging effect”.

He said this approach had been “dismissive” of members in the Havering wards – wards within the Dagenham and Rainham CLP but not within the borough of Barking and Dagenham – and that it “produced very poor quality materials and bred division” that Labour “cannot afford” in such a marginal constituency.

He argued that the method of campaigning under the Barking and Dagenham “banner” had the effect of “further compromising our ability to defend the seat in any upcoming general election” by focusing on contacting uncontacted voters and “chasing a high contact” rather than speaking to Labour supporters.

“In some wards we have neglected our core support. In the London mayoral election in 2021, Sadiq Khan lost in every ward whilst we won each ward on the list. Many of the Dagenham councillors have expressed concern that they were not provided with the data to speak with Labour voters,” he wrote.

The letter to London region followed an extraordinary meeting of his seat’s local party executive, in which its members voted to remove the council leader’s access to the CLP’s data and to campaign as a cross-borough constituency party.

“He is not a member of the CLP and does not represent a ward within the parliamentary constituency, so outside of local elections there is no reason for him to have access to our data,” Cruddas told London region.

“In our Havering wards we have just secured two Labour councillors for the first time in over a decade. All material and strategy for the Havering campaign was devised by Dagenham and Rainham CLP in conjunction with my office. However, we lost ground in our ‘safe’ Dagenham wards where it was not.”

He told regional staff that he is raising funds for a new organiser who would be “unaffected by the internal politics of the borough”. He also complained that a new post-election cabinet for the council placed one Dagenham councillor in the leadership but included ten from the Barking side of the borough.

A spokesperson for Labour’s London regional office told LabourList this afternoon: “Labour in London made some historic achievements at the local elections in May – winning in Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster.

“We will be working hard and campaigning for every vote across the entire city to ensure that Labour continues to improve its position in London ahead of the next general election.”

Cruddas has represented Dagenham and Rainham since its creation in 2010 and its predecessor seat, Dagenham, since 2001. The current parliamentary constituency has been a longstanding key marginal. Tory Havering Council leader Damian White came withinn 293 votes of ousting Cruddas in 2019.

Jon Cruddas and Darren Rodwell have been contacted for comment.