The Conservatives have lost public trust on immigration. Labour must take a lead

Immigration has been a vote winner for the Conservatives for decades. The public trusted them most, and the more the public was concerned about immigration, the more they voted Conservative. Following Brexit promises to take back control of our borders, immigration fell out of the top ten issues of greatest public concern. This has changed little since, with Ipsos MORI ranking it seventh on a list of the most important issues facing Britain today and far behind the economy, the NHS and the environment.

As the Tories struggle to regain a lead in the polls and Suella Braverman fights to stay in post, it is unsurprising to find a return to headline-grabbing rhetoric on immigration to reignite public interest in a usually Tory-boosting policy area. A problem with this all too familiar strategy is that it is grounded on a foundation of credibility that the last 12 years has dismantled. If people don’t believe what you say, the attempted political point-scoring shifts from an electoral advantage to own goals. This is the deep pit from which the Conservatives need to climb out.

It is little wonder that the Conservatives have lost public trust on immigration, with polls finding that only 14% think that they are handling it well and more supporting the approach of the Labour Party. Since 2010, most Conservative governments vowed to cut net migration to less than 100,000 each year. Yet the annual figure has never been higher than it is under the Tories, reaching a peak of 329,000 in 2015 and still twice their promised limit. The 2019 manifesto finally dropped the pledge when nobody believed it would ever be achieved.

Similarly, the Tories talked tough about removing migrants without legal residence. But enforced removals have dropped substantially since 2012 and hit record lows even before Covid. More than 40,000 were removed in 2009 under Labour, but less than 20,000 in 2020 and less than 10,000 in 2021. Tough talk but little action.

More recently, there are increasing concerns about the fast rising numbers of small boats crossing the Channel. The Conservatives pushed through the Nationality and Borders Act in April promising it would “fix our broken asylum system” to much praise throughout the party. Not only did the current Home Secretary Suella Braverman – who was then Attorney General – vote for the Act, but she told the House of Commons in January that it would “fix our broken asylum system” and “stop illegal and dangerous trafficking of illegal migrants” across the Channel. Neither statement is true.

On Monday, Braverman told the Commons that the asylum system is still broken and warned that the country faces an “invasion” of small boats. If the Home Secretary thinks the system doesn’t work, it raises the obvious question of why she was so certain it would be fixed with the introduction of the new law only a few months ago. Moreover, her claim that only her government was serious about tackling small boats is a nonsense when we consider that the Home Office has no records of any small boats arriving before 2018. This was a non-existent problem under Labour, but it has exploded under the Conservatives since 2020 with steep rises every year as more and more people risk their lives.

Two years ago, anyone travelling by small boat could be returned to France or wherever else they had first entered the EU. In 2020, the UK left the EU without a deal on returns. This meant those crossing the Channel could no longer be returned as easily. This is not a problem discovered only in hindsight. I’ve been highlighting the importance of a returns arrangement since 2016 warning that this problem would happen. From 2017, Labour frequently raised the issue of what plans for a post-Brexit returns policy were in place.

The truth is that the Tories never had a plan for replacing the Dublin III regulation returns agreement post-Brexit. Nor did they conduct any assessment of what would happen if there was no agreement. But they were warned repeatedly about this. Labour has been pointing out this concern for more than half a decade. (Repeat this as often as you like.)

Making promises that no one believes is not going to help the Conservatives win back public trust. Voters have become sadly accustomed to hearing much rhetoric but little progress to make our immigration system fairer and better. Labour has a unique opportunity to solidify our lead with the public and make immigration an issue on which we can win, rather than a topic to duck. Successive Home Secretaries have failed to offer workable solutions, and the public needs someone in post who does.

Competence, credibility and compassion are the three Cs that a Labour immigration policy should exemplify alongside the values of security, prosperity and respect. It’s not enough to say we’ll deliver. We need to go further and work harder to spell out the credible, evidence-based platform we defend. We must say what we mean and mean what we say in a tangible way that cuts through.

Our competence and credibility must be matched by our compassion. Allowing potentially unlawful and inhumane conditions in Marston isn’t the look of a ‘global Britain’ of which we can be proud. Demonising others with inflammatory rhetoric to detract from one’s own failings won’t address the problem and only highlights the lack of ideas and vision in government. Nor is it right to use a citizenship test that few citizens can pass and which offends our collective sense of fair play.

Labour can deliver a new points-based immigration plan for post-Brexit Britain, as I have spelled out in a Fabian pamphlet advocating more than 60 policies that would improve the fairness, administration and effectiveness in a significant transformation of the system.

After 12 years of empty talk and broken promises, it is no surprise that the public have lost confidence in the Tories on immigration and are turning to Labour for a way forward. Labour has a big opportunity to make immigration a Labour issue. This would be one part of a game-changing shift in support for our party, which is within our reach. I am optimistic this can and will be grasped.