Labour has 40-point lead over Tories in London, according to YouGov poll

Labour has a 40-percentage-point lead over the Tories in London, according to the latest polling by YouGov – the party’s highest lead since the polling company started tracking voting intention in the capital in 2010.

According to YouGov’s polling – released this morning – 58% of respondents in London said they would vote Labour if there was a general election tomorrow, up three percentage points from its poll earlier this year.

Just 18% of the 1,051 adults in London surveyed said they would vote Conservative, down five points on the earlier poll. 9% said they would support the Liberal Democrats, while 7% reported that they would back the Green Party and 6% said they would opt for Reform UK.

Labour holds 47 of the capital’s 73 constituencies, excluding Jeremy Corbyn and Neil Coyle who, though elected as Labour MPs, currently sit as independents. A total of 21 seats are represented by Tory MPs, while the remaining two constituencies are held by the Liberal Democrats.

The party made some important gains in the capital in the local elections last year, taking Westminster council for first time since its creation in 1964. Labour also won Wandsworth council for the first time since 1978 and took Barnet council after 20 years of Tory rule.

But the party also suffered some losses in London, with the Tories taking overall control of Harrow council for the first time since 2006. Labour lost control of Tower Hamlets council to the Aspire Party – set up by newly re-elected mayor Lutfur Rahman – and Croydon council, which is now in no overall control.

YouGov’s latest polling on voting intention nationally – published at the end of March – found that 46% of respondents said they would vote Labour, down three points on a poll earlier that month, while 26% reported that they would back the Conservatives, up three points from the previous poll.

According to the poll, Keir Starmer holds a four-percentage-point lead over Rishi Sunak in terms of who voters think would make the best Prime Minister, with 30% opting for the Labour leader, down one point on a previous poll, and 26% for the Prime Minister, up one point.

Addressing an away day of Labour prospective parliamentary candidates at the end of March, Starmer acknowledged that Labour has got itself into a “great position”.

But the Labour leader added: “Complacency will kill us. If we think the job is done, we will lose the election, you won’t be MPs, we won’t have a Labour government and the millions of people who need a Labour government would be let down because we’ve been complacent. That will be unforgivable.”

In a briefing on the upcoming local elections, pollster and Tory peer Lord Hayward said the Tories appear to be moving from a “dire” position to a “difficult” one, noting the potential for Rishi Sunak’s favourability ratings to improve the party’s polling.

In an article for LabourList last month, polling expert and former editor of BBC political research David Cowling said Labour’s poll lead is “very impressive” but added: “Popping the champagne corks may be a little premature.”

“My own judgement is that Labour has not yet sealed the deal with the electorate that it needs to in order to climb the mountain that the 2019 election created,” Cowling concluded.

Labour has consistently led in YouGov’s national polling since early December 2021. In a poll on October 21st 2022, the party posted a lead of 37 percentage points – with 56% of respondents saying they would support Labour if an election were held the next day, compared to just 19% who said the same about the Tories.