Soaring mortgage costs may win Labour more votes than its housing policies

Labour goes on the offensive today over housing, releasing new analysis suggesting children born this year have a one-in-three chance of home ownership when they reach 50. Not content with being the “party of business” and of “take back control”, now Labour is pinching another Tory slogan  — becoming “proudly the party of homeownership”.

Shadow Levelling Up and Housing Secretary Lisa Nandy has reiterated its plans to make 1.5 million more people new homeowners, reform planning and give first-time buyers a “comprehensive” mortgage guarantee scheme and “first dibs” on local new homes.

The Conservatives retort that Labour has “no plan” on housebuilding, and condemn the last Labour government’s housebuilding record — a clutch at some very old straws.

Mortgage costs a bigger risk to the Tories than Labour attacks

Housing issues well beyond Labour’s control may prove far more damaging to the Conservatives’ prospects at the next election, however. Inflation figures were higher than expected last week, with Britain now alone in Western Europe in facing double-digit price rises.

That’s not just bad news for the cost-of-living crisis and government’s key pledge to halve inflation, but it also means interest rates will likely rise further. Economists expect them to peak at 5% by September, meaning steeper hikes in homeowners’ mortgage costs and steeper barriers to first-time buyers.

Research last year found 45 Conservative seats had above-average mortgage debt levels, leaving homeowners or their tenants particularly exposed, and majorities of under 20%. They are concentrated in the south. The authors leave us hanging on how far the Lib Dems or Labour stand to gain, though.

Also today: Scotland selections, strikes and reshuffle rumours

Lots more Labour news today and overnight. Election guru John Curtice predicts a four- or five-point Tory-to-Labour swing at the local elections, but fewer than the 1,000 Tory losses others have forecast. Speculation is growing in Westminster over a Labour reshuffle post-locals, and what it could, or should, mean for Angela Rayner.

In London, some 50 per cent of voters say mayor Sadiq Khan is “doing badly”, down three percentage points on a year ago, though Labour says Tory austerity is what’s holding London back. Further south, Labour-controlled Southampton council is also on the defensive about raiding £23.7m of reserves to balance its books, blaming the past Tory administration.

Further north, John Grady — a lawyer with expertise in price controls, among other things — is Labour’s newly unveiled candidate for Glasgow’s East End. Maureen Burke, a councillor since 2012, will stand in Glasgow North East. The selections come as Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie dubs the SNP  “out of control, out of steam and out of time” after its latest reported accounting troubles.

It’s also an important day for the wider labour movement. National Education Union teachers are on picket lines this morning, and Royal College of Nursing union members await a High Court verdict on their strike’s lawfulness.