‘Labour can’t take ethnic minority votes for granted – it must find a voice on race’

Labour has won most Black and Asian votes in every general election for the last half century. But the party can not take for granted that this will continue.

The race politics of the 1960s and 1970s generated strong ethnic minority allegiance to Labour. Party identification is much lower in this century. Relatively few young voters from minority backgrounds will inherit political loyalties or know much about who Labour are. The party will have to introduce itself anew to this next generation.

Labour no longer has the near monopoly on Black and Asian political representation that it had from 1987 until the David Cameron era. Rishi Sunak’s government has more diversity at the very top, giving the right more confidence in contesting public arguments about race. More cross-party diversity in politics can mean more polarisation on race.

That presents headaches for Labour, which seeks an electoral coalition that spans the geographic and generational divides of post-Brexit Britain. The worst of all worlds scenario is that a zero-sum polarised politics of race might see everybody feel that the party is on somebody else’s side – so that ethnic minority voters feel ignored and taken for granted even though some other voters perceive Labour as a party that looks out for minorities first.

New Labour gave little thought to race in opposition a quarter of a century ago. But expectations were lower then. There was little diversity in the room. Few even noticed that the Cabinet was all white, for the first five years, as that was always the case until Paul Boateng became the first Black Cabinet minister in 2002.

The strong electoral imperative behind the successful drive for greater gender balance in parliament did not extend to race. Just four of New Labour’s 187 class of 1997 cohort of new MPs were from visible minorities, 2% of the PLP, compared to 20% today after a significant acceleration after 2010.

Today, Labour often focuses its diversity efforts too narrowly on parliamentary representation, though this is probably the sole sphere of progressive politics where there is not an aggregate ethnic diversity deficit. Every other sphere of power and influence in the party – particularly special advisers and staffers, local council groups, and how the party memberships can draw fully from the areas they represent – could do with more attention.

In office, New Labour improvised on race in response to events. The historic inquiry into Stephen Lawrence’s murder increased awareness of institutional racism. Ted Cantle’s inquiry into parallel lives in northern mill towns shifted the focus from multiculturalism to cohesion. The aftermath of 9/11 and 7/7 saw an intense focus on both Islamist extremism and Muslim integration. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown each made big picture speeches about integration and national identity, but left office without a establishing a coherent strategy for race, inclusion or integration.

Could Keir Starmer’s government do better? Race is much more salient in our society and politics. One in 20 people were from visible minority backgrounds in the 1990s, compared to one in six today. The swing constituencies of middle Britain are significantly more ethnically diverse in 2024.

Yet this is increasingly diverse diversity too, reflected in the shift away from an aggregate “BAME” lens. This creates cross-pressures, for  the party to recognise specific identities and challenges faced by specific ethnic and faith groups? Does the party need a Black manifesto to campaign on? And would it have a British Asian manifesto too – or specific pitches to Muslim, Sikh and Hindu voters? How would that fit together into a broad vision for race equality – and within a broader public argument about fairness across majority and minority groups?

The opposition is seeking to adopt a “mission-driven” agenda for a Labour government? Can it integrate an ambitious agenda for race equality into its narrative and agenda for government, or will this be a more segmented agenda to pitch to minority groups?

New research from British Future, published for the Windrush 75 network, may offer some clues as to how to bring race equality into Labour’s overall mission and agenda. There is broad public frustration at a heated debate about race that focuses too much on the language of how we talk about race – and too little on action on what still needs to change, from ensuring fair chances in recruitment to tackling online hatred.

The arrival of the Windrush has become the symbolic starting point of a new multi-ethnic Britain. The public attitudes research finds  broad public approval across black, Asian and white groups for a mission to set and achieve a ‘net zero’ goal on racism and discrimination in Britain by 2048.

The next Labour government could adopt the centenary year of the arrival of the Windrush – 2048 – as a lodestar year for race equality in Britain. The party’s proposed new flagship Race Equality Act could provide the foundations, and framework for what the government will measure to keep progress on track.

We are now used to thinking about ‘net zero’ on climate change: the 2050 targets set an animating mission that is constructive, action-orientated and makes each strand of policy-making part of a larger mission. It may never be realistic to eliminate every individual example of unfairness, but the challenge of this generation should be to reduce, minimise or eliminate the extent to which race and ethnicity are associated with systemic bias and unequal opportunities.

Take the clearest example of systemic unfairness on race in Britain. Those with “ethnic-sounding” names get fewer interviews than others with an identical CV. Everybody who hears about that agrees it should change. The ‘net zero’ goal could offer a way to challenge all sectors to step up, to track their efforts to monitor and eliminate this problem, including using the civil service to pilot and test responses to correct this.

Labour can expect to win the majority of ethnic minority votes once again in 2024, at least by virtue of its national poll lead. Whether it can sustain that support over time may depend on whether the party can navigate the increasing complexity of race in Britain – and integrate its ambitions for race equality into the party’s overall vision for the future.