Uxbridge by-election: What do voters make of Beales, Starmer and the Tories?

Today is polling day in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where Boris Johnson’s resignation as an MP in early June sparked a high-profile by-election.

Labour’s candidate is Danny Beales, local to the area and a councillor in Camden, who is facing off against the Conservative Steve Tuckwell, a Hillingdon councillor, and no fewer than 15 other candidates, from Count Binface to Piers Corbyn to anti-ULEZ independent candidate (one of several) Leo Phaure.

It has been held by the Tories since the seat was created in 2010, and Labour needs a 7.6 per cent swing to win. One poll put Labour on 41% versus the Conservatives’ 33% amid anger at the cost of living and Johnson’s behaviour, but the Tories have tried to turn it into a referendum on London mayor’s controversial expansion of the ultra-low emission zone (ULEZ).

Despite the canvassers, politicians and journalists flocking to the outer London seat, quite a few people outside Uxbridge station a few days earlier this week tell LabourList they didn’t know there was a by-election happening at all.

Annemarie is one of them and stops to chat. Although she didn’t know there was a by-election, and doesn’t know the candidates’ names, she isn’t happy with Rishi Sunak, who she reckons is doing a worse job than his predecessor. She says she thinks she’ll vote Labour. Another woman stops to tell me that no politicians are doing enough for elderly people.

Overall, the picture from a couple of hours chatting to voters is mixed, but not positive for the Conservatives. One Tory’s name comes up over and over again, and it’s not Steve Tuckwell.

“Danny Beales – I’m interested in him”

Avalon, who has just come from the dentist, says that as a parent he takes a keen interest in the politics and state of the local area. “Danny Beales- I’m interested in him, in his backstory”, he says, saying he has read about Beales’ experience growing up in a single-parent family, experiencing homelessness and being the first in his family to go to university.

My plan for Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Vote for change. Vote Labour on Thursday 20 July. 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/vykvB36jSk

— Danny Beales 🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@DannyBeales) June 23, 2023

“I’ve always been historically a Labour supporter”, Avalon continues, before commenting that he hasn’t heard much from the Conservative candidate. He’s heard more from the Christian People’s Party (who are leafleting a short distance from where we speak, as is the independent candidate 77 Joseph) and the Climate Party than he had from them.

“I know more about the guys on the periphery than I do about the Conservative, and that kind of says it all.” He has little appreciation for Boris Johnson, who he terms a “wolf in sheep’s clothing”.

“Pompous” Starmer won’t prevent a Labour vote

But Michelle says it was a shame that Boris Johnson stood down, saying that as a local MP, “he helped me so much”, and that “no one took on more than he did at the beginning”. Now, though, she’s thinks “it’s going to have to be Labour” as she doesn’t like Rishi Sunak and doesn’t think Keir Starmer could do a worse job, even if she does think the Labour leader is “pompous”.

If she’s lukewarm on the leader, she does, however, have time for Labour’s candidate Danny Beales, praising his work to save the local police station, and says she will be voting Labour this week.

Great to be joined today by @Keir_Starmer and @RachelReevesMP in Uxbridge & South Ruislip.

People here are paying £434 more a month on their mortgages because of Conservative chaos.

As your MP, I will fight to put more money in the pockets of hard-working people. pic.twitter.com/jUdq0SljLZ

— Danny Beales 🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@DannyBeales) June 22, 2023

“The Conservatives will never get in in Uxbridge again”

Not everyone has such a positive view of Boris Johnson, however. Anthony, an older man with a faint Irish accent, tells me that Johnson “ruined this country”, “lied to parliament”, and that “he shouldn’t even get his pension”. As for the outcome of the by-election, he has a decisive prediction: “The Conservatives will never get in in Uxbridge again.”

Julian, a younger man I talk to, says that as a local MP Johnson was “never here”, and likes what he’s read about Danny Beales on the leaflets that have come through his door.

He says that while usually a Liberal Democrat voter, he’ll be voting Labour this time. Describing ULEZ as a “double-edged sword”, he says he’s ultimately supportive of the policy because of its broader implications for the climate.

All to play for as 16% reportedly ‘undecided’

To every person who joined me over the past 6 weeks -thank you.

Every single door knocked, leaflet delivered and phone call made has taken us one step closer to painting Uxbridge and South Ruislip red.

I’ll see you out on the doors tomorrow for one last push. pic.twitter.com/vJYtgKFD4C

— Danny Beales 🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@DannyBeales) July 19, 2023

According to Beales’ campaign materials, 16% of those who ultimately cast a ballot for Labour will not have made their minds up this morning, and with things having been tighter than Labour would perhaps have liked.

Polls may suggest Danny Beales is likelier than not to be elected as the area’s MP by this time tomorrow, but he’ll need every vote he can get.