‘Rutherglen gives Labour no guarantees, but shows voters are ready to listen’

“Stands Scotland where it did?”

That question, first asked by MacDuff in Act 4 of Macbeth, was the question on the lips of observers of politics North and South of the Border this week.

And just before 2am on Friday morning their question was answered….when Scottish Labour’s Michael Shanks was elected the new MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West with 58.6% of the vote, more than double the vote share of the SNP, securing a swing of more than 20%.

It was indisputably, as Scottish Labour proudly asserted, “a seismic result” that confirmed that Scottish politics has indeed shifted. And so Scotland now will  be at the heart of Labour’s campaign to kick the Conservatives out of Downing Street next year.

It is said that success has many fathers… and mothers. And it is true that this latest Scottish political drama has more than its fair share of Labour heroes.

By-election success has many fathers – and mothers

Michael Shanks, a local modern studies teacher, proved to be a talented, likeable and hardworking candidate.

Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour’s leader, who just two years ago inherited a party in third place with more chatter about its survival than its revival, led the campaign brilliantly from the front.

Keir Starmer, the UK Labour leader, visited regularly but even more importantly, the three years of his leadership that preceded the last three months of this campaign, had put Labour back in business across Britain.

Scottish Labour’s Deputy Leader, Dame Jackie Baillie, and Ian Murray, the Shadow Scottish Secretary, were a constant presence as the political leaders of the campaign.

Scottish Labour’s new General Secretary, John Paul McHugh, brought years of electoral experience, and a calm authority to the campaign management.

The too rarely acknowledged Party staff also got the win their tireless efforts richly deserved.

And, in their hundreds, from right across the country came councillors, MPs, PPCs, party members, supporters and trade unionists, week in, week out, in a practical and powerful demonstration of solidarity in action.

The SNP were out-thought, out-worked and out-campaigned

ICYMI: Congratulations Michael Shanks – the newest Labour MP, for Rutherglen and Hamilton West. pic.twitter.com/RduamItZmu

— Scottish Labour (@ScottishLabour) October 6, 2023

The SNP were not simply out-voted…in Rutherglen they were comprehensively out-thought, out-worked and out-campaigned.

Politics never stays still, however, so now, with the seismic result still sinking in, the defining question has already shifted to what does all this mean for the General Election? This question matters critically far beyond Scotland’s borders, as progress in Scotland brings the prospect of a majority Labour Government closer into reach.

If Labour can win in Scotland, the path to power becomes a whole lot less steep. Because for every 8 seats Scottish Labour wins, Keir Starmer needs 1% less swing in England & Wales. Scotland could make the difference between Government and Opposition, or between Majority and Minority Government.

It is therefore significant that Rutherglen could also be fairly described as a bell weather Scottish seat in that it contains both the groups Labour needs to secure to grow its support…. former SNP independence supporting voters, and former Conservative voters opposed to independence.

So far, so important. But isn’t it all too easy to over interpret the results of any by-election?

While of course that’s true, no less a psephological authority than Sir John Curtice has already opined that “the scale of Scottish Labour’s victory suggests the SNP’s decade long dominance of Scotland’s electoral politics is now under serious threat for the first time”.

Indeed, with uncharacteristic extravagance, Curtice has suggested that “if the 20% swing from the SNP to Labour were to be replicated across Scotland as a whole, Labour could find itself with 40 seats, while the SNP would be reduced to half a dozen”.

So what of the politics now to come? Could Rutherglen prove to be merely a flash in the pan and how real are the prospects of a Nationalist revival after this by election drubbing?

The SNP’s three challenges, and Labour’s opportunity

Congratulations @mgshanks on a big and well deserved win tonight.

Tomorrow as @ScottishLabour we’ll have a spring in our step but we’ll keep focussed, keep listening, keep campaigning and keep working to earn the trust of people across Scotland who are yearning for change. https://t.co/DailEB7rRQ

— Douglas Alexander (@D_G_Alexander) October 6, 2023

There are three reasons that Nationalist revival seems unlikely.

First, poor leadership. Humza Yousaf just isn’t very good. His supporters promised Nicola 2.0. Instead we’ve got Nicola 0.5. It’s proved to be a downgrade, not an upgrade.

Second, policy failure. The SNP have been in power since before the iphone was invented. Yet it’s hard to think of a single area of Scottish public life – from schools and hospitals to ferries – that has got better over 16 years. Never has so much political capital been accumulated to so little positive effect.

Third, the loss of imminence. A big part of the Nationalists’ appeal since 2014 has been the sense of inevitability and imminence of another independence referendum. Now even Humza Yousaf has conceded that’s not going to happen any time soon.

The Rutherglen result offers no guarantees…but it does provide an opportunity for Scottish Labour. That opportunity is to continue to restore trust in Labour so that we can earn the chance to also restore trust in Government when the General Election comes.

The by-election result is telling us that in every part of the UK people are now increasingly ready to listen to Labour.

So this week in Liverpool we can take the next step on that long, hard road back to power by showcasing the policies of ‘ordinary hope‘ – that demonstrate how Labour in Government could make a practical difference to working people.

Of course, as Scottish Labour members, we take real pride in this week’s Rutherglen result.

But that pride is tempered by past disappointments and is more than matched by a deep sense of responsibility to do our bit and play our part in securing the Labour Government our communities so desperately need.

So in the months ahead we will keep listening, keep working, keep campaigning and keep focussed on earning the Scottish people’s trust and support.

And if, in the crucial months ahead, we flag or falter as we knock the doors, make the calls, and stuff the envelopes we can draw inspiration from the still resonant words of our fallen Leader, the late great John Smith, in his last speech the night before his tragic death when he said: “The opportunity to serve. That is all we ask.”