‘Carry on, Keir. Voters want neither more “vision” nor Tory division’

For any political geeks who still insist there is no real difference between the two main political parties, last Tuesday must have been a sobering experience. Two significant things happened, only one attracted the attention of the media.

Let’s start with the headline-grabber. This saw the Tories descend into their latest bout of head-banging-omnishambles over what version of a so-called populist policy on immigration that will never happen they should adopt ahead of the election.

And the other? This was the publication of Labour’s latest policy guide for MPs and candidates. This document sets out – rather like a manifesto – the lines that Labour campaigners should adopt when talking to potential voters about policy.

Based around the five missions, of course, it is not full of outrageous claims, three-word slogans or promises to radically redesign Britain: in short, it is a sober programme for governing. It is a sensible plan for how to use the state to make this country a better place to live for as many families as possible.

The contrast with the modern Conservative Party’s idea of what passes for politics could not have been more stark.

Those calling for Starmer to be more radical are wrong

I’ve not yet posed this in the many focus groups I run, but I now feel confident how normal voters would respond to the question of which political party you’d leave in charge of your house if you went on holiday. Keir Starmer would surely give it a spring clean and do all the big bits of DIY you’d not got round to; Rishi Sunak would accidentally invite the local thugs over for a party and inadvertently burn the whole place down. It is as clear as day which one voters will prefer in 2024.

This might not be a message that my fellow party members want to hear, of course. Despite the huge polling lead and Starmer’s evident desire to govern as a progressive social democrat, many on the left are obsessed by the need for Labour to set out a more radical vision to attract voters to the cause. They are wrong.

They would do well – at least those who are old enough – to remember how the 1997 landslide was actually delivered. In his book on New Labour, journalist Andrew Rawnsley points out that Tony Blair and his people were actually rather less about “education education education” and rather more about “reassure reassure reassure”.

They would also do well to listen to other pollsters – including my former colleague Luke Tryl – who argue that voters just want the never-ending conveyor belt of national melodrama to be stopped.

Every time people flick on the news and hear Suella Braverman or Kemi Badenoch or, worse, Bill Cash or Lee Anderson hammering away at the mic angrily threatening revolt, they don’t think, “Oh great, someone standing up for ordinary working class people”, they think, “Please God, make it stop. Make them go away”.

Starmer’s vision isn’t headline-grabbing – and that’s fine

It’s clear that the Labour leader understands this – not least of all in this speech he has delivered today. The public are not, generally, interested in Conservatives going to war with the National Trust over some perceived woke slight. Promising to soberly support institutions such as the RNLI and the NT will be infinitely more popular (at least to those who are still interested) than some confected political bar brawl. This is politics of reassurance in practice.

Nonetheless, I worry that this piece is being unfair on Starmer. Despite what his critics on both the left and right point out, he has set out a vision. But it is a vision for competent, quietly redistributive government that delivers substantive improvements over a period of at least a decade.

Like I say, not exactly headline-grabbing. But that’s fine. People don’t want to see politics dominating the headlines. Most people are sick to death of urgent Downing Street press conferences. If I were Starmer entering No 10 later this year, my first order would be to throw away that bloody lectern.

Last night, I read my younger daughter the parable of the tortoise and the hare. In politics in 2024, the tortoise won’t just win the race, he will likely destroy the hare’s chances of competing in a race for a generation. Starmer must stay his course.