Wellingborough and Kingswood by-election triumphs: Four key takeaways

Congratulations to Labour’s newest MPs-in-waiting, Damien Egan and Gen Kitchen – after major victories in the night’s two by-elections. Read all you need to know about Kitchen and the Wellingborough result here, and Egan and the Kingswood result and reaction here Some notable quick takeaways…

1. The Tory-to-Labour by-election swings are very promising

Biggest Con-Lab by-election swing since 2019 and second biggest since 1945.

Thanks to @DanielJDunford for these excellent and speedily-produced graphs pic.twitter.com/xXS5UeUY0b

— Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) February 16, 2024

Analysis suggests Labour needs a 12.7% swing to secure an overall majority at the general election.

In Wellingborough, the swing of over 28% is better than any Labour by-election performance yet in this parliament, and second only to the record Tory-to-Labour postwar swing seen in Dudley West in 1994 (29.1%).

In Kingswood, Labour notched up a 16.4% swing, apparently close to what Labour achieved in a Wirral South by-election in 1997.

2. More by-election records smashed

The Mirror reports that the Tories have now suffered more by-election losses in a single parliament than any government since the 1960s.

Apparently the decline of 37.1 points in the Tory vote in Welligborough is also the biggest fall in postwar history.

3. Voters really are fed up with Tory decay and soaring prices

The moment @UKLabour’s @Gvkitchen overturned an 18,540 Tory majority here in #Wellingborough, with a 28.5% swing to Labour 🙌

Labour GAIN! 👏👏

Huge congratulations to Gen & to the @EastMidsLabour team, & a huge thank you to everyone who campaigned for Gen & @UKLabour 💪🙏🌹 pic.twitter.com/TfMDRYupeQ

— Lucy Rigby (@LucyRigby) February 16, 2024

Kitchen said her victory showed how “desperately” voters want change. “People here…know our roads aren’t fit to drive on, getting your child a doctor’s appointment can seem impossible, and that they are paying more and getting less. Today they said, enough is enough.”

Meanwhile Egan said Kingswood voters had raised their struggles getting doctors’ or dentists’ appointments, safety on the streets and worries about what food they put in the trolley or how they heat their homes this winter. The cost of living crisis is “not just a slogan”.

4. Reform walked the walk on their strong opinion polling

Reform notched up vote shares of 10.4% in Kingswood and 13% in Wellingborough.

Pollster Luke Tryl noted that while Reform’s vote share exceeds Labour’s majority in Kingswood, not all Reform votes will go back to the Conservatives (as some Tories are implying now)– “so while Reform may have exacerbated the swing they haven’t cost them the seat.”

Sir John Curtice said Reform had “put down a marker”, showing more than one party are “hunting” to tap Tory discontent – but its success “may well end up doing more to help Labour”.