‘The SNP may lose badly, but they’d soon tap any disillusion with Labour in power’

Scottish Labour entered its conference this weekend in a buoyant mood. Just five years on from its lowest ebb in the European elections that saw it win just 9.7% of the vote in Scotland, the momentum behind the party is palpable. 

While the leadership north and south of the border rightly talk about ‘no complacency’, there was a growing sense of expectancy among party activists at this weekend’s conference.

Scottish Labour activists feel optimistic

In many ways, this is no bad thing – who’d want to knock doors for a lost cause? 

With the polls currently predicting a healthy Labour majority in Westminster, winning a swathe of seats from the SNP in the process, it may be tempting to think that the good old days are returning for Scottish Labour.

And as the next few months look particularly difficult for the nationalists, it’s easy to see why this kind of thinking could take hold. 

Take the general election later this year. If the SNP do incur the significant losses that the polls are suggesting then it’s more likely than not that Humza Yousaf – already unpopular with the public and the party – will face a leadership challenge. 

And the future looks difficult for the SNP

The front runner for successor, Kate Forbes, comes with her own baggage. Her socially conservative views on issues like gay marriage and abortion are out of step with a significant chunk of the youthful, liberal activist base. 

So despite undoubtedly being a more capable politician than Yousaf, First Minister Forbes is a culture war waiting to happen. 

More infighting ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections will do little to stem the fall in support when voters will naturally be considering something new after 19 years of SNP government.

Then throw in the not insignificant issue of an ongoing criminal investigation into their former leader and the short term outlook is pretty bleak. 

But the days of Scotland as a Labour heartland are gone

None of this is a foregone conclusion. Yet even if all this comes to pass, the days of Labour being a safe Scottish heartland are gone.

Current polling shows that while SNP popularity has fallen, support for independence remains stable -– with roughly half the population supporting it. Once a slightly eccentric interest, independence is a serious option in political life. 

And while it would, probably, fall further with a Labour government in place – by depriving the SNP of an electoral asset in No 10 –  it’s hard to see a world where it falls to levels seen prior to the 2014 referendum. 

Younger voters lean towards independence

Younger voters’ tendency to support independence compounds the issue.

It’s too easy to suggest that this support will fade with age when increasing evidence shows that the traditional shift toward (at least small c) conservative values later in life is no longer a matter of course. 

Then think about how much time voters will be willing to give a Labour government to solve the issues the country faces – north and south of the border.

If Starmer under-delivers, the SNP will be waiting

Having promised to “turn the page on division and decline” at his speech to conference this weekend, will Starmer really be given the space to deliver amid the scale of the economic challenge?

It’s not difficult to see how quickly cynicism could take hold. 

And who would be better to exploit that than the independence movement who’ve spent the last 18 years drumming into Scottish voters that Westminister is to blame for all of society’s evils?

The SNP are down but very far from out

In many ways the SNP are still in a strong position. Yes a referendum won’t be happening any time soon but voters will, sooner or later, get fed up with a future Labour government as they inevitably do with all governments. 

So while commentators may overlook the cyclical nature of party politics – ‘finished for good’ is more box office than ‘natural ebb and flow’ – the reality is the Scottish political landscape has changed entirely.

Just as Scottish Labour rose from the dead, the SNP and the independence question will return.