Will Rwanda plan cut through in local elections – and help or hinder Labour?

With the Rwanda bill becoming law last week, the Conservatives plan to start deporting the first asylum seekers by July, as part of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s major pledge to “stop the boats”.

Sunak has put the controversial policy centre-stage in recent weeks, with ministers promising flights within weeks and reports asylum seeker detentions could start even sooner.

It begs a key political question for Labour during the local election campaign – how far is the issue cutting through, and is it helping or hindering Tory efforts to close the poll gap?

LabourList spoke to several parliamentary candidates in areas heading to the polls this week.

Voters sceptical about Rwanda flights

Recent YouGov polling suggested that the public is highly divided, with half in favour and half against (both 41%). But half of those polled said the plan was not good value for money, with only 16% saying it was. Half did not think it likely anyone would actually ever be deported to Rwanda, versus just 30% who thought it likely.

Alex Ballinger is standing as Labour’s candidate in Halesowen. The West Midlands constituency includes part of the Dudley council area, which will see every seat up for grabs and a chance for Labour to take control in all-out elections this week.

He told LabourList people on the doorstep recognise that the Rwanda plan is a “gimmick”, “won’t work” and “is costing millions of pounds”.

“The only people so far to go to Rwanda are Conservative ministers,” he said.

“I’m not expecting any benefit to the Conservatives’ standing if it does get through. People care about immigration, of course, but this isn’t the solution.”

Unclear if Labour’s alternative cutting through

However, Cat Eccles parliamentary candidate in neighbouring Stourbridge to the west, and a Wollaston and Stourbridge councillor, said Labour’s policy “isn’t cutting through” on the doorstep at the moment.

She said: “There is a lot of noise coming from Reform and from the Conservatives nationally and locally, where they are saying Labour don’t have a plan.

“Actually, we have a very comprehensive plan to deal with the small boats issues and the asylum backlog. 

“We do come across people who say ‘there’s too many immigrants’ – they’ve heard this rhetoric, sucked it up and regurgitated it back to us. 

“I try to present our policy whenever I get the opportunity. Sometimes it gets through, sometimes it doesn’t – but we’ve just got to keep repeating that we do have a plan that is sensible, measured, far more humanitarian, and doesn’t break international law.”

Rwanda policy has ‘frustrated people of all political persuasions’

Phil Brickell, Labour’s parliamentary candidate in Bolton West, said Rwanda and immigration “was not the number one issue in the constituency”.

He also said some voters in the town in the north-west, which has seen no party hold a majority on the council since 2019 but Labour close to regaining power, had been “receptive” to Labour’s proposals on addressing issues with the asylum process.

Brickell said: “When people talk about it, they have already made up their mind about how they will be voting. We do have former Conservative voters who will be voting for Reform, and they might bring it up.

“I think the current policy and the failure to get a plane in the air and send anybody there has frankly frustrated people of all political persuasions. I speak to people on the doorstep and I say ‘I don’t think it is a good use of taxpayers’ money spending £500 million on a scheme that is unlikely to work.’

“All too often the conversation is about how they want to see a fair immigration system and a fair asylum process, but we’re all struggling with the cost of living and people have to cut their cloth accordingly – and to see money be spent on a scheme that has dragged on and on and has not worked really riles people up.”

Recent polling shows that Labour is now more trusted to handle immigration than the Conservatives, leading the government by 10 percentage points. Brickell said that some have been open to Labour’s plans when explained to them on the doorstep.

“When I say what [Shadow Home Secretary] Yvette Cooper’s vision is – around closer collaboration with France, investing in decision makers, not chasing gimmicks and having a serious grown-up policy on asylum and immigration, people are receptive to that.”

Law ‘changes none of the important facts’

Josh Simons, director of Starmerite think tank Labour Together, said the new law “changes none of the important facts” and that Labour will be ready if the Tories choose to fight the election on immigration.

 “One, for the first time in decades, Labour are more trusted on immigration than the Conservatives. Two, our polling shows voters prefer Labour’s five-point plan than the Conservatives’ Rwanda plan.

“Third, Yvette Cooper is right: this is an extortionately expensive gimmick that has already wasted £370 million of taxpayers’ money.

“And fourth, as we saw again today, innocent people fleeing war and persecution are dying in shocking circumstances. If Rishi Sunak wants to fight the next election on immigration, Labour will be ready.”

Read our coverage of the 2024 local elections here.

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