Battle of the bar charts in Wimbledon: Inside a rare election three-horse race

On a busy street corner about 10 minutes walk from Wimbledon station, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have locked horns to win over disillusioned Tory voters.

Both parties are not content to let the ground game alone see them over the line. They have set up shop next door to each other, with bar charts in their windows outlining each of their pitches on the basis of polling data.

Wimbledon is set to be a rare three-horse race this election, with the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats all eyeing the south-west London seat.

Incumbent Conservative MP Stephen Hammond is standing down, making this a wide-open race in one of London’s most closely contested constituencies.

The ‘Orange Wall’ expands

Walk down many roads in this leafy London suburb this June, and you’ll two familiar signs adorning the facades of many residents’ homes.

The St George’s Cross flag is draped from the odd second-floor window to cheer on the England football squad, while an orange diamond declaring the Liberal Democrats are ‘Winning Here’ will be staked outside many a bay-windowed semi.

READ MORE: Could Labour take ‘non-battleground’ Tory seats across the South West?

The Liberal Democrats have seen success in south-west London over the past months, taking the South West seat in the London Assembly for the first time this May.

They are also typically the closest competition to the Tories in the wider area, holding several parliamentary constituencies in the region and threatening a fair few more.

But Eleanor Stringer, Labour’s candidate for the seat, is confident in the party’s claim to be the best anti-Tory vote in Wimbledon.

The deputy council leader for Merton – the London borough under which Wimbledon falls – is aiming to take on the Lib Dem narrative that only they will be ‘Winning Here’.

While the Lib Dems finished a close second in Wimbledon in 2019, Stringer told LabourList that Labour is in it to win it. She said: “We’re prominently making clear that this is a very different election from 2019.

“As a Labour councillor in 2019, I heard clearly on the doorstep that many people couldn’t vote for us under the then leadership, but they also wanted to vote as a protest about Brexit.

“The Lib Dems felt like the right party for them to protest against Brexit and protest against Corbyn. But things are so different now.”

READ MORE: Meet NHS doctor Zubir Ahmed, fighting one of Scotland’s tightest marginals

Wimbledon has been held by the Conservatives since 2005, when now retiring MP Stephen Hammond won the seat off Labour. However, he saw off a fierce competition from the Lib Dems in 2019, where Paul Kohler came within a few hundred votes of taking the seat.

Much like many London constituencies, Wimbledon voted to remain in the European Union eight years ago by more than 70%.

Taking on the Lib Dems

While Lib Dem bar charts in Wimbledon are keen to big up their spitting-distance from victory last time round, Labour is quick to emphasise its past triumphs in the area.

Wimbledon was a Labour seat between 1997 and 2005, while the Liberal Democrats have never held it.

READ MORE: Could Labour take ‘non-battleground’ Tory seats across the South West?

This battle to be the main local opposition to the Tories has seen the constituency turn into one of the few three-way contests in England this general election.

But even though Labour has the advantage of previously having held the seat and a Labour led-council in the area, the party is still facing some critical challenges in getting the message through.

The area is home to a number of independent schools, and Stringer conceded that Labour’s plan to remove the VAT exemption on private school fees has come up on the doorstep.

The Liberal Democrats have not echoed this pledge.

But she added: “People understand that state schools are really under pressure, and some of the parents themselves are under pressure.

“I think who we need to be holding to account here are the private schools who have increased their fees above inflation over the past decade.

“I think it’s only fair we think about what’s best for all of our children, including the 93% who are in state schools.”

The case for Labour

Up there with D-Day and GambleGate, one of the most repeated phrases this general election has been tactical voting.

In many seats across the country, residents who want the Tories removed from office will likely cast their ballots for whichever party is most likely to see the Conservative Party lose – whether that be Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

The case for Labour as the tactical vote in Wimbledon was dealt a blow by recommendations from progressive campaign group Best for Britain, which suggested a vote for the Lib Dems.

READ MORE: Labour wants a new generation of new towns. Can it win in Milton Keynes?

However, the MRP data cited showed the Lib Dems only marginally ahead of Labour on 35% to 30.5% ­– with both leading on the Conservatives.

Wimbledon Labour activists are still pushing to be that alternative to the Tories. They argue that a vote for Starmer’s Change manifesto in the constituency is a vote to have an MP from the party of government.

Ross Garrod, leader of Merton Council, told LaboutList: “We’re finding actively pro-Labour people here who want to be part of that change.

“I think that’s going to be the choice here in Wimbledon. Do you want an MP who’s got the ear of the ruling government?”

Stringer added: “People realise that the choice is between a Labour government or a Conservative government.

“It’s a choice between having an MP locally who’s going to be on your side, in the party of power, fighting for our community – or one who is going to be protesting from the side lines.”

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