Labour is set to gain swathes of Scotland, the Home Counties and the Red Wall, according to YouGov’s latest mega-poll.
The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model from the pollster currently predicts Labour would win a majority of 194 seats, in what would be the party’s best result ever.
The poll projected that Labour would win 422 seats in the House of Commons, with the Conservatives reduced to just 140 seats – their worst result in more than 100 years.
LabourList has mapped out the forecast result from YouGov to look closer at what areas of the country might be turned red at the general election – and who Labour’s new MPs could be.
The forecast shows Labour regaining seats in the Red Wall that it lost in 2019, including areas like Ashfield, Bolsover and Colne Valley, as well as keeping the gains it won in by-elections in huge swings from the Conservatives, such as Blackpool South and Selby.
The party is also expected to make a large number of gains in southern England, including in Hertfordshire, Kent and Cornwall.
Among the ministers set to lose their seats to Labour, based on the MRP forecast, include Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Jonny Mercer and David TC Davies.
Full list of forecast Labour seats – and who would be Labour’s new MPs
| Aberafan Maesteg | Stephen Kinnock MP |
| Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson |
| Aldershot | Alex Baker |
| Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman |
| Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand |
| Alyn and Deeside | Mark Tami MP |
| Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth |
| Ashfield | Rhea Keehn |
| Ashford | Sojan Joseph |
| Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner MP |
| Aylesbury | Laura Kyrke-Smith |
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart |
| Banbury | Sean Woodcock |
| Bangor Aberconwy | Claire Hughes |
| Barking | Candidate not yet selected |
| Barnsley North | Dan Jarvis MP |
| Barnsley South | Stephanie Peacock MP |
| Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham |
| Basingstoke | Luke Murphy |
| Bassetlaw | Jo White |
| Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan |
| Battersea | Marsha de Cordova MP |
| Beckenham and Penge | Liam Conlon |
| Bedford | Mohammad Yasin MP |
| Bermondsey and Old Southwark | Neil Coyle MP |
| Bethnal Green and Stepney | Rushanara Ali MP |
| Bexleyheath and Crayford | Daniel Francis |
| Birkenhead | Alison McGovern |
| Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Gill MP |
| Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton MP |
| Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali MP |
| Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne MP |
| Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood MP |
| Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner |
| Birmingham Perry Barr | Khalid Mahmood MP |
| Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns |
| Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips MP |
| Bishop Auckland | Sam Rushworth |
| Blackburn | Kate Hollern MP |
| Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer MP |
| Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers |
| Blackpool South | Chris Webb |
| Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Nick Smith MP |
| Blaydon and Consett | Liz Twist MP |
| Blyth and Ashington | Ian Lavery MP |
| Bolsover | Natalie Fleet |
| Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle |
| Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi MP |
| Bolton West | Phil Brickell |
| Bootle | Peter Dowd MP |
| Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes |
| Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale |
| Bracknell | Peter Swallow |
| Bradford East | Imran Hussain MP |
| Bradford South | Judith Cummins MP |
| Bradford West | Nas Shah MP |
| Brent East | Dawn Butler MP |
| Brent West | Barry Gardiner MP |
| Brentford and Isleworth | Ruth Cadbury MP |
| Bridgend | Chris Elmore MP |
| Bridgwater | Leigh Redman |
| Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Chris Ward |
| Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy |
| Bristol North East | Damien Egan MP |
| Bristol North West | Darren Jones MP |
| Bristol South | Karin Smyth MP |
| Bromley and Biggin Hill | Oana Olaru-Holmes |
| Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell |
| Buckingham and Bletchley | Callum Anderson |
| Burnley | Oliver Ryan |
| Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier |
| Bury North | James Frith |
| Bury South | Christian Wakeford MP |
| Caerfyrddin | Martha O’Neil |
| Caerphilly | Chris Evans MP |
| Calder Valley | Josh Fenton-Glynn |
| Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon |
| Cambridge | Daniel Zeichner MP |
| Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury |
| Canterbury | Rosie Duffield MP |
| Cardiff East | Jo Stevens MP |
| Cardiff North | Anna McMorrin MP |
| Cardiff South and Penarth | Stephen Doughty MP |
| Cardiff West | Alex Barros-Curtis |
| Carlisle | Julie Minns |
| Central Ayrshire | Alan Gemmell |
| Central Devon | Ollie Pearson |
| Chatham and Aylesford | Tris Osborne |
| Chelsea and Fulham | Ben Coleman |
| Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon MP |
| Chesterfield | Toby Perkins MP |
| Chingford and Woodford Green | Shama Tatler |
| Chipping Barnet | Dan Tomlinson |
| Cities of London and Westminster | Rachel Blake |
| City of Durham | Mary Kelly Foy |
| Clapham and Brixton Hill | Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP |
| Clwyd East | Becky Gittins |
| Clwyd North | Gill German |
| Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally |
| Colchester | Pam Cox |
| Colne Valley | Paul Davies |
| Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron |
| Coventry East | Mary Creagh |
| Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi MP |
| Coventry South | Zarah Sultana MP |
| Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward |
| Cramlington and Killingworth | Emma Foody |
| Crawley | Peter Lamb |
| Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith |
| Croydon East | Natasha Irons |
| Croydon South | Ben Taylor |
| Croydon West | Sarah Jones MP |
| Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray |
| Dagenham and Rainham | Margaret Mullane |
| Darlington | Lola McEvoy |
| Dartford | Jim Dickson |
| Derby North | Catherine Atkinson |
| Derby South | Baggy Shanker |
| Derbyshire Dales | John Whitby |
| Dewsbury and Batley | Heather Iqbal |
| Doncaster Central | Sally Jameson |
| Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme | Lee Pitcher |
| Doncaster North | Ed Miliband MP |
| Dover and Deal | Mike Tapp |
| Dudley | Sonia Kumar |
| Dulwich and West Norwood | Helen Hayes MP |
| Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie |
| Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard | Alex Mayer |
| Ealing Central and Acton | Rupa Huq MP |
| Ealing North | James Murray MP |
| Ealing Southall | Deidre Costigan |
| Earley and Woodley | Yuan Yang |
| Easington | Grahame Morris MP |
| East Ham | Stephen Timms MP |
| East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid |
| East Renfrewshire | Blair McDougall |
| East Thanet | Polly Billington |
| East Worthing and Shoreham | Tom Rutland |
| Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracey Gilbert |
| Edinburgh South | Ian Murray MP |
| Edmonton and Winchmore Hill | Kate Osamor MP |
| Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders MP |
| Eltham and Chislehurst | Clive Efford MP |
| Enfield North | Feryal Clark MP |
| Erewash | Adam Thompson |
| Erith and Thamesmead | Abena Oppong-Asare MP |
| Exeter | Steve Race |
| Falkirk | Euan Stainbank |
| Feltham and Heston | Seema Malhotra MP |
| Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove |
| Finchley and Golders Green | Sarah Sackman |
| Folkestone and Hythe | Tony Vaughan |
| Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop |
| Gateshead Central and Whickham | Mark Ferguson |
| Gedling | Michael Payne |
| Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan |
| Glasgow East | John Grady |
| Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes |
| Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke |
| Glasgow South | Gordon McKee |
| Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed |
| Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson |
| Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker |
| Gloucester | Alex McIntyre |
| Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne MP |
| Gower | Tonia Antoniazzi MP |
| Gravesham | Lauren Sullivan |
| Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | Melanie Onn |
| Great Yarmouth | Keir Cozens |
| Greenwich and Woolwich | Matthew Pennycook MP |
| Hackney North and Stoke Newington | Diane Abbott MP |
| Hackney South and Shoreditch | Meg Hillier MP |
| Halesowen | Alex Ballinger |
| Halifax | Kate Dearden |
| Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker |
| Hammersmith and Chiswick | Andy Slaughter MP |
| Hampstead and Highgate | Tulip Siddiq MP |
| Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Hajira Piranie |
| Harlow | Chris Vince |
| Harrow East | Primesh Patel |
| Harrow West | Gareth Thomas MP |
| Hartlepool | Jonathan Brash |
| Harwich and North Essex | Alex Diner |
| Hastings and Rye | Helena Dollimore |
| Hayes and Harlington | John McDonnell MP |
| Hemel Hempstead | David Taylor |
| Hendon | David Pinto-Duschinsky |
| Hexham | Joe Morris |
| Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Blundell |
| High Peak | Jon Pearce |
| Hitchin | Alistair Strathern MP |
| Holborn and St Pancras | Keir Starmer MP |
| Hornsey and Friern Barnet | Catherine West MP |
| Houghton and Sunderland South | Bridget Phillipson MP |
| Hove and Portslade | Peter Kyle MP |
| Huddersfield | Harpreet Uppal |
| Hyndburn | Sarah Smith |
| Ilford North | Wes Streeting MP |
| Ilford South | Jas Athwal |
| Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey |
| Ipswich | Jack Abbott |
| Isle of Wight East | Emily Brothers |
| Isle of Wight West | Richard Quigley |
| Islington North | Praful Nargund |
| Islington South and Finsbury | Emily Thornberry MP |
| Jarrow and Gateshead East | Kate Osborne MP |
| Keighley and Ilkley | John Grogan |
| Kensington and Bayswater | Joe Powell |
| Kettering | Rosie Wrighting |
| Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones |
| Kingston upon Hull East | Karl Turner MP |
| Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham | Diana Johnson MP |
| Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | Emma Hardy MP |
| Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley |
| Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith MP |
| Leeds Central and Headingley | Alex Sobel MP |
| Leeds East | Richard Burgon MP |
| Leeds North East | Fabian Hamilton MP |
| Leeds North West | Katie White |
| Leeds South | Hilary Benn MP |
| Leeds South West and Morley | Mark Sewards |
| Leeds West and Pudsey | Rachel Reeves MP |
| Leicester East | Rajesh Agrawal |
| Leicester South | Jonathan Ashworth MP |
| Leicester West | Liz Kendall MP |
| Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt |
| Lewisham East | Janet Daby MP |
| Lewisham North | Vicky Foxcroft MP |
| Lewisham West and East Dulwich | Ellie Reeves MP |
| Leyton and Wanstead | Calvin Bailey |
| Lincoln | Hamish Falconer |
| Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle MP |
| Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson MP |
| Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden MP |
| Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker MP |
| Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne MP |
| Livingston | Gregor Poynton |
| Llanelli | Nia Griffith MP |
| Lothian East | Douglas Alexander |
| Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher |
| Lowestoft | Jess Asato |
| Luton North | Sarah Owen MP |
| Luton South and South Bedfordshire | Rachel Hopkins MP |
| Macclesfield | Tim Roca |
| Makerfield | Josh Simons |
| Manchester Central | Lucy Powell MP |
| Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan MP |
| Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith MP |
| Mansfield | Steve Yemm |
| Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Gerald Jones MP |
| Mid and South Pembrokeshire | Henry Tufnell |
| Mid Bedfordshire | Maahwish Mirza |
| Mid Cheshire | Andrew Cooper |
| Mid Derbyshire | Jonathan Davies |
| Middlesbrough and Thornaby East | Andy McDonald MP |
| Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Luke Myer |
| Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill |
| Milton Keynes Central | Emily Darlington |
| Milton Keynes North | Chris Curtis |
| Mitcham and Morden | Siobhain McDonagh MP |
| Monmouthshire | Catherine Fookes |
| Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge |
| Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | Torcuil Crichton |
| Neath and Swansea East | Carolyn Harris MP |
| Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | Chi Onwurah MP |
| Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | Mary Glindon MP |
| Newcastle upon Tyne North | Catherine McKinnell MP |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee |
| Newport East | Jessica Morden MP |
| Newport West and Islwyn | Ruth Jones MP |
| Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | Alan Strickland |
| Normanton and Hemsworth | Jon Trickett MP |
| North Ayrshire and Arran | Irene Campbell |
| North Durham | Luke Akehurst |
| North East Derbyshire | Louise Jones |
| North East Hertfordshire | Chris Hinchliff |
| North East Somerset and Hanham | Dan Norris |
| North Somerset | Sadik Al-Hassan |
| North Warwickshire and Bedworth | Rachel Taylor |
| North West Cambridgeshire | Sam Carling |
| North West Leicestershire | Amanda Hack |
| Northampton North | Lucy Rigby |
| Northampton South | Mike Reader |
| Norwich North | Alice MacDonald |
| Norwich South | Clive Lewis MP |
| Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome MP |
| Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris MP |
| Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood MP |
| Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling |
| Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams MP |
| Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon MP |
| Ossett and Denby Dale | Jade Botterill |
| Oxford East | Anneliese Dodds MP |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Taylor |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter |
| Peckham | Miatta Fahnbulleh |
| Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan Hinder |
| Penistone and Stocksbridge | Marie Tidball |
| Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours |
| Peterborough | Andrew Pakes |
| Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas |
| Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard MP |
| Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | Yvette Cooper MP |
| Pontypridd | Alex Davies-Jones MP |
| Poplar and Limehouse | Apsana Begum MP |
| Portsmouth North | Amanda Martin |
| Portsmouth South | Stephen Morgan MP |
| Preston | Mark Hendrick MP |
| Putney | Fleur Anderson MP |
| Queen’s Park and Maida Vale | Georgia Gould |
| Rawmarsh and Conisbrough | John Healey MP |
| Reading Central | Matt Rodda MP |
| Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Olivia Bailey |
| Redcar | Anna Turley |
| Redditch | Chris Bloore |
| Rhondda and Ogmore | Chris Bryant MP |
| Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis |
| Rochdale | Paul Waugh |
| Rochester and Strood | Lauren Edwards |
| Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae |
| Rother Valley | Jake Richards |
| Rotherham | Sarah Champion MP |
| Rugby | John Slinger |
| Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner | Tony Gill |
| Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury MP |
| Rushcliffe | James Naish |
| Rutherglen | Michael Shanks MP |
| Salford | Rebecca Long Bailey MP |
| Scarborough and Whitby | Alison Hume |
| Scunthorpe | Nic Dakin |
| Sefton Central | Bill Esterson MP |
| Selby | Keir Mather MP |
| Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough | Gill Furniss MP |
| Sheffield Central | Abtisam Mohamed |
| Sheffield Hallam | Olivia Blake MP |
| Sheffield Heeley | Louise Haigh MP |
| Sheffield South East | Clive Betts MP |
| Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh |
| Shipley | Anna Dixon |
| Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley |
| Slough | Tan Deshi MP |
| Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan |
| South Basildon and East Thurrock | Jack Ferguson |
| South Derbyshire | Samantha Niblett |
| South Dorset | Lloyd Hatton |
| South Norfolk | Ben Goldsborough |
| South Ribble | Paul Foster |
| South Shields | Emma Lewell-Buck MP |
| Southampton Itchen | Darren Paffey |
| Southampton Test | Satvir Kaur |
| Southend East and Rochford | Bayo Alaba |
| Southend West and Leigh | David Burton-Sampson |
| Southgate and Wood Green | Bambos Charalambous MP |
| Southport | Patrick Hurley |
| Spen Valley | Kim Leadbeater MP |
| St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law |
| St Helens North | David Baines |
| St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer MP |
| Stafford | Leigh Ingham |
| Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds MP |
| Stevenage | Kevin Bonavia |
| Stockport | Navendu Mishra MP |
| Stockton North | Chris McDonald |
| Stockton West | Joe Dancey |
| Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell |
| Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams |
| Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner |
| Stourbridge | Cat Eccles |
| Stratford and Bow | Uma Kumaran |
| Streatham and Croydon North | Steve Reed MP |
| Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western MP |
| Stroud | Simon Opher |
| Sunderland Central | Lewis Atkinson |
| Swansea West | Torsten Bell |
| Swindon North | Will Stone |
| Swindon South | Heidi Alexander |
| Tatton | Ryan Jude |
| Telford | Shaun Davies |
| Thurrock | Jen Craft |
| Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance |
| Tooting | Rosena Allin-Khan MP |
| Torfaen | Nick Thomas-Symonds MP |
| Tottenham | David Lammy MP |
| Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham |
| Tynemouth | Alan Campbell MP |
| Uxbridge and South Ruislip | Danny Beales |
| Vale of Glamorgan | Kanishka Narayan |
| Vauxhall and Camberwell Green | Flo Eshalomi MP |
| Wakefield and Rothwell | Simon Lightwood MP |
| Wallasey | Angela Eagle MP |
| Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz MP |
| Walthamstow | Stella Creasy MP |
| Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols MP |
| Warrington South | Sarah Hall |
| Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western MP |
| Washington and Gateshead South | Sharon Hodgson MP |
| Watford | Matt Turmaine |
| Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen MP |
| Welwyn Hatfield | Andrew Lewin |
| West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes |
| West Dunbartonshire | Douglas McAllister |
| West Ham and Beckton | James Asser |
| West Lancashire | Ashley Dalton MP |
| West Suffolk | Rebecca Denness |
| Weston-super-Mare | Daniel Aldridge |
| Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister |
| Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg MP |
| Wigan | Lisa Nandy MP |
| Wirral West | Matthew Patrick |
| Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge |
| Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden MP |
| Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss |
| Worcester | Tom Collins |
| Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler |
| Worthing West | Beccy Cooper |
| Wrexham | Andrew Ranger |
| Wycombe | Emma Reynolds |
| Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane MP |
| Ynys Môn | Ieuan Mon Williams |
| York Central | Rachael Maskell MP |
| York Outer | Luke Charters |
Read more of our 2024 general election coverage here.
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