YouGov MRP poll: Full map and list of Labour candidates tipped to win

Photo: @Keir_Starmer

Labour is set to gain swathes of Scotland, the Home Counties and the Red Wall, according to YouGov’s latest mega-poll.

The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model from the pollster currently predicts Labour would win a majority of 194 seats, in what would be the party’s best result ever.

The poll projected that Labour would win 422 seats in the House of Commons, with the Conservatives reduced to just 140 seats – their worst result in more than 100 years.

LabourList has mapped out the forecast result from YouGov to look closer at what areas of the country might be turned red at the general election – and who Labour’s new MPs could be.

The forecast shows Labour regaining seats in the Red Wall that it lost in 2019, including areas like Ashfield, Bolsover and Colne Valley, as well as keeping the gains it won in by-elections in huge swings from the Conservatives, such as Blackpool South and Selby.

The party is also expected to make a large number of gains in southern England, including in Hertfordshire, Kent and Cornwall.

Among the ministers set to lose their seats to Labour, based on the MRP forecast, include Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Jonny Mercer and David TC Davies.

Full list of forecast Labour seats – and who would be Labour’s new MPs

Aberafan Maesteg Stephen Kinnock MP
Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson
Aldershot Alex Baker
Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman
Altrincham and Sale West Connor Rand
Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami MP
Amber Valley Linsey Farnsworth
Ashfield Rhea Keehn
Ashford Sojan Joseph
Ashton-under-Lyne Angela Rayner MP
Aylesbury Laura Kyrke-Smith
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart
Banbury Sean Woodcock
Bangor Aberconwy Claire Hughes
Barking Candidate not yet selected
Barnsley North Dan Jarvis MP
Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock MP
Barrow and Furness Michelle Scrogham
Basingstoke Luke Murphy
Bassetlaw Jo White
Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan
Battersea Marsha de Cordova MP
Beckenham and Penge Liam Conlon
Bedford Mohammad Yasin MP
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Neil Coyle MP
Bethnal Green and Stepney Rushanara Ali MP
Bexleyheath and Crayford Daniel Francis
Birkenhead Alison McGovern
Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Gill MP
Birmingham Erdington Paulette Hamilton MP
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Tahir Ali MP
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne MP
Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood MP
Birmingham Northfield Laurence Turner
Birmingham Perry Barr Khalid Mahmood MP
Birmingham Selly Oak Alistair Carns
Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips MP
Bishop Auckland Sam Rushworth
Blackburn Kate Hollern MP
Blackley and Middleton South Graham Stringer MP
Blackpool North and Fleetwood Lorraine Beavers
Blackpool South Chris Webb
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Nick Smith MP
Blaydon and Consett Liz Twist MP
Blyth and Ashington Ian Lavery MP
Bolsover Natalie Fleet
Bolton North East Kirith Entwistle
Bolton South and Walkden Yasmin Qureshi MP
Bolton West Phil Brickell
Bootle Peter Dowd MP
Bournemouth East Tom Hayes
Bournemouth West Jessica Toale
Bracknell Peter Swallow
Bradford East Imran Hussain MP
Bradford South Judith Cummins MP
Bradford West Nas Shah MP
Brent East Dawn Butler MP
Brent West Barry Gardiner MP
Brentford and Isleworth Ruth Cadbury MP
Bridgend Chris Elmore MP
Bridgwater Leigh Redman
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Chris Ward
Bristol East Kerry McCarthy
Bristol North East Damien Egan MP
Bristol North West Darren Jones MP
Bristol South Karin Smyth MP
Bromley and Biggin Hill Oana Olaru-Holmes
Broxtowe Juliet Campbell
Buckingham and Bletchley Callum Anderson
Burnley Oliver Ryan
Burton and Uttoxeter Jacob Collier
Bury North James Frith
Bury South Christian Wakeford MP
Caerfyrddin Martha O’Neil
Caerphilly Chris Evans MP
Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn
Camborne and Redruth Perran Moon
Cambridge Daniel Zeichner MP
Cannock Chase Josh Newbury
Canterbury Rosie Duffield MP
Cardiff East Jo Stevens MP
Cardiff North Anna McMorrin MP
Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty MP
Cardiff West Alex Barros-Curtis
Carlisle Julie Minns
Central Ayrshire Alan Gemmell
Central Devon Ollie Pearson
Chatham and Aylesford Tris Osborne
Chelsea and Fulham Ben Coleman
Chester North and Neston Samantha Dixon MP
Chesterfield Toby Perkins MP
Chingford and Woodford Green Shama Tatler
Chipping Barnet Dan Tomlinson
Cities of London and Westminster Rachel Blake
City of Durham Mary Kelly Foy
Clapham and Brixton Hill Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Clwyd East Becky Gittins
Clwyd North Gill German
Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally
Colchester Pam Cox
Colne Valley Paul Davies
Corby and East Northamptonshire Lee Barron
Coventry East Mary Creagh
Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi MP
Coventry South Zarah Sultana MP
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward
Cramlington and Killingworth Emma Foody
Crawley Peter Lamb
Crewe and Nantwich Connor Naismith
Croydon East Natasha Irons
Croydon South Ben Taylor
Croydon West Sarah Jones MP
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray
Dagenham and Rainham Margaret Mullane
Darlington Lola McEvoy
Dartford Jim Dickson
Derby North Catherine Atkinson
Derby South Baggy Shanker
Derbyshire Dales John Whitby
Dewsbury and Batley Heather Iqbal
Doncaster Central Sally Jameson
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher
Doncaster North Ed Miliband MP
Dover and Deal Mike Tapp
Dudley Sonia Kumar
Dulwich and West Norwood Helen Hayes MP
Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Alex Mayer
Ealing Central and Acton Rupa Huq MP
Ealing North James Murray MP
Ealing Southall Deidre Costigan
Earley and Woodley Yuan Yang
Easington Grahame Morris MP
East Ham Stephen Timms MP
East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid
East Renfrewshire Blair McDougall
East Thanet Polly Billington
East Worthing and Shoreham Tom Rutland
Edinburgh North and Leith Tracey Gilbert
Edinburgh South Ian Murray MP
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill Kate Osamor MP
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Justin Madders MP
Eltham and Chislehurst Clive Efford MP
Enfield North Feryal Clark MP
Erewash Adam Thompson
Erith and Thamesmead Abena Oppong-Asare MP
Exeter Steve Race
Falkirk Euan Stainbank
Feltham and Heston Seema Malhotra MP
Filton and Bradley Stoke Claire Hazelgrove
Finchley and Golders Green Sarah Sackman
Folkestone and Hythe Tony Vaughan
Forest of Dean Matt Bishop
Gateshead Central and Whickham Mark Ferguson
Gedling Michael Payne
Gillingham and Rainham Naushabah Khan
Glasgow East John Grady
Glasgow North Martin Rhodes
Glasgow North East Maureen Burke
Glasgow South Gordon McKee
Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed
Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson
Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker
Gloucester Alex McIntyre
Gorton and Denton Andrew Gwynne MP
Gower Tonia Antoniazzi MP
Gravesham Lauren Sullivan
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn
Great Yarmouth Keir Cozens
Greenwich and Woolwich Matthew Pennycook MP
Hackney North and Stoke Newington Diane Abbott MP
Hackney South and Shoreditch Meg Hillier MP
Halesowen Alex Ballinger
Halifax Kate Dearden
Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker
Hammersmith and Chiswick Andy Slaughter MP
Hampstead and Highgate Tulip Siddiq MP
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Hajira Piranie
Harlow Chris Vince
Harrow East Primesh Patel
Harrow West Gareth Thomas MP
Hartlepool Jonathan Brash
Harwich and North Essex Alex Diner
Hastings and Rye Helena Dollimore
Hayes and Harlington John McDonnell MP
Hemel Hempstead David Taylor
Hendon David Pinto-Duschinsky
Hexham Joe Morris
Heywood and Middleton North Elsie Blundell
High Peak Jon Pearce
Hitchin Alistair Strathern MP
Holborn and St Pancras Keir Starmer MP
Hornsey and Friern Barnet Catherine West MP
Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson MP
Hove and Portslade Peter Kyle MP
Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal
Hyndburn Sarah Smith
Ilford North Wes Streeting MP
Ilford South Jas Athwal
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey
Ipswich Jack Abbott
Isle of Wight East Emily Brothers
Isle of Wight West Richard Quigley
Islington North Praful Nargund
Islington South and Finsbury Emily Thornberry MP
Jarrow and Gateshead East Kate Osborne MP
Keighley and Ilkley John Grogan
Kensington and Bayswater Joe Powell
Kettering Rosie Wrighting
Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones
Kingston upon Hull East Karl Turner MP
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson MP
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy MP
Knowsley Anneliese Midgley
Lancaster and Wyre Cat Smith MP
Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel MP
Leeds East Richard Burgon MP
Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton MP
Leeds North West Katie White
Leeds South Hilary Benn MP
Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards
Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves MP
Leicester East Rajesh Agrawal
Leicester South Jonathan Ashworth MP
Leicester West Liz Kendall MP
Leigh and Atherton Jo Platt
Lewisham East Janet Daby MP
Lewisham North Vicky Foxcroft MP
Lewisham West and East Dulwich Ellie Reeves MP
Leyton and Wanstead Calvin Bailey
Lincoln Hamish Falconer
Liverpool Garston Maria Eagle MP
Liverpool Riverside Kim Johnson MP
Liverpool Walton Dan Carden MP
Liverpool Wavertree Paula Barker MP
Liverpool West Derby Ian Byrne MP
Livingston Gregor Poynton
Llanelli Nia Griffith MP
Lothian East Douglas Alexander
Loughborough Jeevun Sandher
Lowestoft Jess Asato
Luton North Sarah Owen MP
Luton South and South Bedfordshire Rachel Hopkins MP
Macclesfield Tim Roca
Makerfield Josh Simons
Manchester Central Lucy Powell MP
Manchester Rusholme Afzal Khan MP
Manchester Withington Jeff Smith MP
Mansfield Steve Yemm
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Gerald Jones MP
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Henry Tufnell
Mid Bedfordshire Maahwish Mirza
Mid Cheshire Andrew Cooper
Mid Derbyshire Jonathan Davies
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Andy McDonald MP
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Luke Myer
Midlothian Kirsty McNeill
Milton Keynes Central Emily Darlington
Milton Keynes North Chris Curtis
Mitcham and Morden Siobhain McDonagh MP
Monmouthshire Catherine Fookes
Morecambe and Lunesdale Lizzi Collinge
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash
Na h-Eileanan an Iar Torcuil Crichton
Neath and Swansea East Carolyn Harris MP
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Chi Onwurah MP
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Mary Glindon MP
Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell MP
Newcastle-under-Lyme Adam Jogee
Newport East Jessica Morden MP
Newport West and Islwyn Ruth Jones MP
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Alan Strickland
Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett MP
North Ayrshire and Arran Irene Campbell
North Durham Luke Akehurst
North East Derbyshire Louise Jones
North East Hertfordshire Chris Hinchliff
North East Somerset and Hanham Dan Norris
North Somerset Sadik Al-Hassan
North Warwickshire and Bedworth Rachel Taylor
North West Cambridgeshire Sam Carling
North West Leicestershire Amanda Hack
Northampton North Lucy Rigby
Northampton South Mike Reader
Norwich North Alice MacDonald
Norwich South Clive Lewis MP
Nottingham East Nadia Whittome MP
Nottingham North and Kimberley Alex Norris MP
Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood MP
Nuneaton Jodie Gosling
Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams MP
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Jim McMahon MP
Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill
Oxford East Anneliese Dodds MP
Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Taylor
Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter
Peckham Miatta Fahnbulleh
Pendle and Clitheroe Jonathan Hinder
Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball
Penrith and Solway Markus Campbell-Savours
Peterborough Andrew Pakes
Plymouth Moor View Fred Thomas
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard MP
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper MP
Pontypridd Alex Davies-Jones MP
Poplar and Limehouse Apsana Begum MP
Portsmouth North Amanda Martin
Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan MP
Preston Mark Hendrick MP
Putney Fleur Anderson MP
Queen’s Park and Maida Vale Georgia Gould
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey MP
Reading Central Matt Rodda MP
Reading West and Mid Berkshire Olivia Bailey
Redcar Anna Turley
Redditch Chris Bloore
Rhondda and Ogmore Chris Bryant MP
Ribble Valley Maya Ellis
Rochdale Paul Waugh
Rochester and Strood Lauren Edwards
Rossendale and Darwen Andy MacNae
Rother Valley Jake Richards
Rotherham Sarah Champion MP
Rugby John Slinger
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Tony Gill
Runcorn and Helsby Mike Amesbury MP
Rushcliffe James Naish
Rutherglen Michael Shanks MP
Salford Rebecca Long Bailey MP
Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume
Scunthorpe Nic Dakin
Sefton Central Bill Esterson MP
Selby Keir Mather MP
Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss MP
Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed
Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake MP
Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh MP
Sheffield South East Clive Betts MP
Sherwood Forest Michelle Welsh
Shipley Anna Dixon
Shrewsbury Julia Buckley
Slough Tan Deshi MP
Smethwick Gurinder Singh Josan
South Basildon and East Thurrock Jack Ferguson
South Derbyshire Samantha Niblett
South Dorset Lloyd Hatton
South Norfolk Ben Goldsborough
South Ribble Paul Foster
South Shields Emma Lewell-Buck MP
Southampton Itchen Darren Paffey
Southampton Test Satvir Kaur
Southend East and Rochford Bayo Alaba
Southend West and Leigh David Burton-Sampson
Southgate and Wood Green Bambos Charalambous MP
Southport Patrick Hurley
Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater MP
St Austell and Newquay Noah Law
St Helens North David Baines
St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer MP
Stafford Leigh Ingham
Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds MP
Stevenage Kevin Bonavia
Stockport Navendu Mishra MP
Stockton North Chris McDonald
Stockton West Joe Dancey
Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell
Stoke-on-Trent North David Williams
Stoke-on-Trent South Allison Gardner
Stourbridge Cat Eccles
Stratford and Bow Uma Kumaran
Streatham and Croydon North Steve Reed MP
Stretford and Urmston Andrew Western MP
Stroud Simon Opher
Sunderland Central Lewis Atkinson
Swansea West Torsten Bell
Swindon North Will Stone
Swindon South Heidi Alexander
Tatton Ryan Jude
Telford Shaun Davies
Thurrock Jen Craft
Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance
Tooting Rosena Allin-Khan MP
Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds MP
Tottenham David Lammy MP
Truro and Falmouth Jayne Kirkham
Tynemouth Alan Campbell MP
Uxbridge and South Ruislip Danny Beales
Vale of Glamorgan Kanishka Narayan
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green Flo Eshalomi MP
Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood MP
Wallasey Angela Eagle MP
Walsall and Bloxwich Valerie Vaz MP
Walthamstow Stella Creasy MP
Warrington North Charlotte Nichols MP
Warrington South Sarah Hall
Warwick and Leamington Matt Western MP
Washington and Gateshead South Sharon Hodgson MP
Watford Matt Turmaine
Wellingborough and Rushden Gen Kitchen MP
Welwyn Hatfield Andrew Lewin
West Bromwich Sarah Coombes
West Dunbartonshire Douglas McAllister
West Ham and Beckton James Asser
West Lancashire Ashley Dalton MP
West Suffolk Rebecca Denness
Weston-super-Mare Daniel Aldridge
Whitehaven and Workington Josh MacAlister
Widnes and Halewood Derek Twigg MP
Wigan Lisa Nandy MP
Wirral West Matthew Patrick
Wolverhampton North East Sureena Brackenridge
Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden MP
Wolverhampton West Warinder Juss
Worcester Tom Collins
Worsley and Eccles Michael Wheeler
Worthing West Beccy Cooper
Wrexham Andrew Ranger
Wycombe Emma Reynolds
Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane MP
Ynys Môn Ieuan Mon Williams
York Central Rachael Maskell MP
York Outer Luke Charters

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