If the polls are correct, Keir Starmer will enter Downing Street as prime minister on 5 July.
After a night of results, and little sleep, Starmer would travel to meet the King. After officially becoming prime minister, he would then head back to Downing Street to address the nation. For the first time as prime minister, Starmer would set out his vision for the country, hoping to avoid the rain and musical soundtrack that accompanied his predecessor’s last speech outside No.10 just over six weeks earlier.
Once the new prime minister has been clapped in through that famous front door, the work of government begins. There is a meeting with the cabinet secretary and a series of urgent briefings on domestic policy issues and national security threats. At the same time, there will need to be discussions on living arrangements for the PM and their family in No 10.
New prime ministers are also given the opportunity to write to the commanders of the UK’s four nuclear submarines with instructions for what to do if a nuclear strike cuts off contact with the UK. If the extreme weight of responsibility hasn’t dawned on them before then, it surely will now.
Establishing a government
Next up is government formation. Cameras are primed for the familiar sight of potential ministers walking up Downing Street to find out what role they will play in government. We would expect most, if not all, of the cabinet to be appointed by Friday evening – assuming there is a clear majority.
Before new cabinet ministers are chauffeured off to their new departments, they meet the lead civil servant for ‘propriety and ethics’ to review any conflicts of interest and check that all appointments are above board.
The whole government formation process requires precise choreography. But this time round, Labour would have one key advantage: Sue Gray.
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Previously the civil service ethics chief herself, Gray is likely to oversee the government formation process – now from the political side – as Starmer’s chief of staff. She has been there before, knows the process and would no doubt play a crucial role in those early days in No.10.
In between appointing cabinet ministers, there are phone calls with international leaders. Lots of them. Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz would likely be amongst the first of many world leaders to speak to a new prime minister, but the No 10 switchboard may also be fielding calls from the PM’s friends and family wanting to send their congratulations.
The weekend will bring no rest for the election winner. The diary will be filled with appointing junior ministers, calls with other world leaders and civil service briefings, while the whole political team, fresh into No.10, will be working hard on putting their well-worn plans for power into practice.
A fresh parliament
This general election will also see a whole swathe of new MPs elected. All MPs will be sworn in from 9 July, before the ‘King’s Speech’ on 17 July marks the state opening of parliament. This speech, given by the King but written by the government, is an opportunity for a new party in power to set out its priorities for the parliament.
Before the general election was called, parliament had been due to break for summer recess just a few days later, on 23rd July. But a new government may want more time to make progress in parliament, such as over legislation on workers’ rights which Labour have committed to introduce within 100 days.
Following six weeks touring the UK on the campaign trail, the prime minister will need to turn their attention to the international stage.
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They will be expected to fly to Washington DC for the NATO summit on 9 July, while on 18 July the prime minister will host leaders at the European Political Community summit at Blenheim Palace.
It is not just the No 10 team who will be busy. New ministers across government will be working hard to get to grips with the scale of responsibility they are taking on. They will want to focus on making progress on their key priorities, but there will be a whole range of other issues thrust upon them.
A pressing decision on public sector pay looms. The pay review bodies were asked to submit recommendations in May, but neither these, nor the government’s response to them, have been published. The next government is also committed to setting up a compensation system for victims of the infected blood scandal within months, after the Victims and Prisoners Bill became law on the final day of the last parliament.
Campaign over, governing begins
But these are just two aspects of government spending that would feature in what could be a defining moment for a new Labour government: the Budget. Tax has been prominent in this campaign, but the absence of honest discussion about public spending has been even more stark. Once the election is over, the difficult decisions on spending will be impossible to avoid.
Rachel Reeves has said she would like to give the Office for Budget Responsibility a full 10 weeks to complete its forecast ahead of the Budget. With Reeves as chancellor, this would make 13 September the earliest likely date, but it could come later in the autumn.
The next government will have a plan for its first 100 days. But pending ‘in-tray’ decisions will also demand immediate attention, and events, inevitably, will disrupt the diaries.
Keir Starmer will have prepared for the possibility of becoming prime minister on July 5, but those first few days in No 10 would immediately bring home the reality of what it means to be in government.
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