Mayor elections 2025: Poll results breakdown as YouGov predicts four Labour defeats

Labour is forecast to lose all four combined mayoral elections on May 1, according to polling by YouGov.

The party is set to be pushed into third in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, where it currently holds the mayoralty, as well as in Hull and East Yorkshire and Greater Lincolnshire.

In the West of England, Labour is second, four points behind the Green Party, according to the poll.

Reform is set to pick up the two new mayoral positions, with former Tory MP Paul Bristow forecast to win by a 12-point margin over Reform in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.

In each of the four regions, only around a third of voters who backed Labour at the general election told pollsters they were certain to vote on May 1.

A spokesperson for YouGov said: “Reform UK’s Andrea Jenkyns holds a healthy lead in her quest to become the first mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, with 40% intending to vote for the former Conservative minister. This compares to 25% currently supporting Conservative Rob Waltham and 15% backing Labour’s Jason Stockwood.

“Reform UK also lead in the race to be the inaugural mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire. Our poll puts candidate Luke Campbell on 35% of the vote, clearly ahead of Lib Dem Mike Ross on 21%, Labour’s Margaret Pinder on 20% and Conservative Anne Handley on 15%.

“The West of England mayoral contest is a close race between the Greens’ Mary Page, currently polling at 27% of the vote, and Labour’s Helen Godwin, on 23% of the vote. If the Greens manage to convert their small poll lead into a victory, it will mean the mayoralty has been won by a different party in all three elections since the position was established.

“While many have predicted big losses for the Conservatives in the council elections, the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty might be a source of good news for Kemi Badenoch. Our poll has the Tory candidate Paul Bristow on 32% of the vote, a clear lead over other candidates, which will allow the Conservatives to gain the mayoralty from Labour.

“Last time this mayoralty was contested in 2021, it was held under the two-round ‘supplementary vote’ system, which meant that although the Conservatives had an eight-point lead in the first round, second preference votes from Lib Dem voters allowed Labour to win the contest in the second round. This time the contest will happen under first past the post, meaning polls will have to narrow in order for the Tory lead to be overturned.”

Read our coverage of the 2025 local elections:

• Local elections expert predicts ‘bad night’ for Labour, with no net seat gains as Reform, Greens and Lib Dems advance
• 2025 local council and mayor elections: What’s a good night for Labour?
• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• Hull and East Yorkshire mayor election: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage
• Inside the West of England mayor campaign, from Tory and Green threats to Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Runcorn and Helsby by-election: Labour candidate Karen Shore on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels

For more from LabourList, subscribe to our daily newsletter roundup of all things Labour – and follow us on  Bluesky, WhatsApp, Threads, X or Facebook.

• SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected].
• SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning.
• DONATE: If you value our work, please chip in a few pounds a week and become one of our supporters, helping sustain and expand our coverage.
• PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or projects, email [email protected].
• ADVERTISE: If your organisation would like to advertise or run sponsored pieces on LabourList‘s daily newsletter or website, contact our exclusive ad partners Total Politics at [email protected].