Spring Statement and welfare reforms ‘will lose votes’, Labour members say – as poll shows most back a wealth tax

The vast majority of Labour members expect the government’s Spring Statement and welfare reforms will cause the party to lose public support, according to exclusive polling by Survation for LabourList which also found high support for a wealth tax.

Around 80% of readers polled thought that the two measures would dent Labour’s support among voters, just weeks ahead of local council and mayoral elections across parts of England.

Some 71% had a negative view of last week’s Spring Statement by the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, which outlined spending cuts to some government departments, as well as confirming changes to personal independence payments and Universal Credit, and the government’s plans to hike defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027.

Close to two-thirds (64%) of those polled said that the Spring Statement was worse than they expected, compared to 30% who said it was better than they had expected.

Labour members split over defence spending

When asked which measure in the Spring Statement they liked the most, 37% backed Rachel Reeves’ crackdown on tax evasion, with 19% supporting the government’s commitment to more capital spending and 11% apiece backing more defence spending and guaranteed personalised support to help people get back to work.

However, when asked which areas the government should be looking to make savings from, around a quarter (24%) said cuts should be made to the defence budget, with 12% pointing to international aid, ten percent to pensions and nine percent to the budget assigned to culture, sport and the arts.

Just shy of a third (31%) said that healthcare spending should be protected from savings, with 14% calling for working age and child benefits to be spared from cuts, and ten percent of those polled saying local government funding should be protected.

Nine in ten members would back new form of wealth tax

With several Labour MPs and trade union general secretaries calling for greater levies against the wealthiest in society, LabourList’s exclusive poll found that 89% of those polled would back a new form of wealth tax, with 76% saying they would “strongly support” such a move.

Three-quarters (76%) of those polled also said that the Chancellor should loosen the government’s fiscal rules, with 84% expressing support for a rise in capital gains tax to the same rate as income tax.

‘Labour members are sending a clear warning’

Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said: “Labour members are sending a clear warning: the Spring Statement risks alienating core supporters just weeks before key elections. The overwhelming view that the party is heading in the wrong direction, combined with strong support for wealth taxes and looser fiscal rules, shows a widening disconnect between the leadership’s economic approach and member expectations.”

The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

Survation surveyed 1,053 LabourList readers who also said they were Labour Party members between March 26 and April 1, shortly after the Spring Statement.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region and 2020 Labour leadership vote, targets for which were derived from the British Election Study and the results of the 2020 leadership election.

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