Caerphilly by-election becomes test of Labour’s resilience amid Reform threat

Since the end of the First World War, Caerphilly has never backed anyone but Labour at a general or Senedd election. Sitting a stone’s throw away from Cardiff and a half-hour drive from Merthyr Tydfil, where Labour’s first MP Keir Hardie was elected in 1900, Caerphilly and the Welsh Valleys more broadly represent the ruby-red jewel in Labour’s crown. Like its medieval castle, Caerphilly has long stood as a bastion of Labour support. But after more than a century, Labour’s hold on Caerphilly now seems to hang in the balance ahead of a pivotal by-election for the town’s Senedd seat.

Polling ahead of next year’s Senedd elections has suggested Labour might be pushed into third behind Reform and Plaid Cymru – and a constituency poll for the by-election released yesterday suggests Labour might take just 12% in a seat they won by 46% four years ago. Welsh Labour have sought to downplay the poll, calling constituency level polling “unreliable”, but even they acknowledge the campaign has been “difficult” with “frustrations on the doorsteps” – though they also note “real concern about letting Reform in” among voters.

The old certainty of Labour support felt shakier as I stepped off the train in Caerphilly. Reform’s by-election HQ stood close by to the station, a security guard at its door; a short way down the same road was Welsh Labour’s hub – and a short walk away, beside a century-old workmen’s hall, Plaid Cymru’s. Three campaign offices within half a mile, each vying for Caerphilly’s future.

Before Survation’s poll was published, I caught up with Labour’s candidate Richard Tunnicliffe, as he met with Labour’s Police and Crime Commissioner for Gwent Jane Mudd and former Caerphilly MP Wayne David.

‘I want to be able to carry on Hefin David’s legacy’

The tragic circumstances behind the by-election cannot be forgotten, with the contest being triggered by the death of Hefin David, who had served as the MS for Caerphilly for almost a decade.

Richard said: “I’d only known Hefin properly for a year, but we got really close in that time. I was supposed to be having dinner with him and his wife Vicki the night before. It was a shock out of the blue the following day to hear what happened.

“Hefin was a really good man – passionate about the area and its people. He’d followed in his father’s tradition; his father had been a councillor as well, and he’d grown up as a Welsh Labour man and was always so committed to all the community groups.”

Richard credits Hefin for encouraging him to stand for election in the first place, following Hefin’s support for a campaign Richard had been working on.

“He said ‘you did well in that campaign, you should come and help my campaign’ – and then he talked me into standing.”

Continuing Hefin’s legacy is a key tenet of Richard’s by-election campaign, particularly around additional learning needs – an issue close to both men.

Richard said that standing as Labour’s candidate is “bittersweet”: “I’d rather not be, because I’d rather he was still here, but if someone’s got to follow him in the Senedd seat, I’m glad it’s me.

“I want to be able to be that person, so that I can carry on his legacy, carry on all that support and fight for the same things.

“It’s an honour – it’s a daunting honour, and if you’re not daunted about doing this, I don’t think you’re looking at it right. In a sense, Hefin is the model I’m trying to look up to and follow.”

READ MORE: Tributes paid to ‘much-loved’ Caerphilly MS Hefin David after sudden death

‘People want to see their communities respected and flourish again’

Richard claimed that local issues, rather than the national picture, has dominated conversations on the doorstep – including concerns around antisocial behaviour.

“They want to see that the everyday lives they are living are getting better. They want to see and believe that tomorrow is going to be better than today, so we’re responding to what people are telling us are the major issues and we’re putting together plans for each community about how we can address those.”

A publisher by trade, one campaign that Richard has been passionate about during the by-election has been protecting the constituency’s libraries from closure by the Labour-led council. He has called for Pride in Place funding granted by the government to be directed to save libraries in local communities.

“People want to see their communities respected and flourish again. When you go around listening and you hear their stories, you can see how much it means to people. You can see how much being a community matters to people.”

‘Standing up for what is right, not what’s popular, is important’

Richard has been a Labour member for decades, joining at 15 and growing up at the height of Thatcherism.

“My dad was a Labour councillor from when I was born and was the leader of the Labour group on the council in my hometown [of Bracknell]. Labour values came from my family values.”

He recalled knocking on doors in the Thatcher years in the third safest Conservative seat in the country – an experience he has taken to heart.

“It shows you several things: standing up for what is right, not what’s popular, is important – but also listening to what people are saying if you want to make progress. You have to understand the other person’s point of view. I’m always looking to see where there is common ground to build bridges and move forward.”

READ MORE: Neil Kinnock on his ‘impossible promises’ conference speech, 40 years on

‘Making people’s lives better – that’s what we’re here for’

Joining Richard on the campaign trail have been campaigners and activists from across Wales and beyond – as well as support from former Labour leader Neil Kinnock, who grew up nearby in Tredegar. In videos shared by Welsh Labour on social media, Kinnock has implored voters not to be taken in by Reform and said: “The Valleys have never needed Labour more”.

Richard Tunnicliffe is totally dedicated to the communities of Caerphilly and the Valleys. pic.twitter.com/m7bZ3uY4jD

— Welsh Labour (@WelshLabour) October 11, 2025

Having his support, along with a raft of volunteers, has meant the world, Richard said.

“It’s what the Labour movement’s about – everybody coming and doing their bit and working together, making us an unstoppable force.

“Fundamentally, just as Neil’s done all his life, it’s about making people’s lives better. That’s what we’re here for. That’s why we’ve got involved in politics.”

‘People in Caerphilly do not want a Reform member of the Senedd’

Despite troubling polling nationally in Wales, Richard insists that a bedrock of support for Labour still remains in the Valleys.

“Solid Welsh Labour values have always been the values of the Valleys and we have strong roots here. We are going out and we are still seeing those strong roots and the respect that Hefin had. When we’ve been out on the doors, there is still strong Labour support there.

“We see Reform trying to focus on discontent and people who are feeling things are not going forward quickly enough. They are coming in as the contender – it’s a straight fight between the two of us, and that’s also what we are seeing out on the doors.

“I passionately believe that the people of this constituency do not want a Reform member of the Senedd. As long as we can unite together to send that message, we can tell Farage that we do not want his divisive politics in our constituency.”

READ MORE: Labour on course for distant third place in Caerphilly by-election, poll shows

Welsh Labour source: ‘We are facing an absolute mountain’

Although I left my interview with Richard feeling more upbeat about Labour’s chances, I couldn’t help but notice a lack of any Labour placards as I wandered around the town.

You’d be forgiven for not realising a by-election was taking place, but in the small number of homes that were displaying their allegiances – it was a battle between Reform and Plaid Cymru for the real estate on people’s windows.

In one instance, a house displayed a skateboard backing Plaid Cymru alongside a ‘Show Racism the Red Card’ sign – while next door, a bright teal poster backed Reform.

Others in Welsh Labour struck a more sombre tone about the by-election. Speaking to LabourList on the condition of anonymity, a source conceded that Labour would lose the by-election.

“We all know we’re up against it in this one, because of the national polling. I think we can’t as a Welsh Labour Party absorb ourselves of all responsibility, but I think we do feel very much that we’ve been caught up in the anti-UK Labour government stuff – and it’s really difficulty for people to differentiate.

“We are facing an absolute mountain – and I think most of the adverse reaction that we’re getting on the doorsteps is about the UK Labour government, and that’s a real problem for us.

“There are people out there that are still very loyal to Labour. There are other people that are fed up with us, but they’ll never vote for Reform or the Tories. The danger in this by-election is that the progressive vote won’t know where to go for the best effect in terms of defeating Reform. I think that’s what will let Reform in. I hope I’m wrong, but I think Reform will win that seat.”

‘If we go down, you go down with us’

They also expressed dissatisfaction with the amount of support the Welsh Labour government has received from Westminster, accusing them of treating Cardiff Bay as “some kind of colonialist organisation down the end of the M4”.

“One of the things that we were banging on about when we were in opposition in [Westminster], we used to go on about how great it will be to have two Labour governments and they would have the Partnership in Power. It just hasn’t happened. We’re not being taken seriously.

“We’ve been trying to say to the UK government – if we go down, you go down with us.”

The source warned that a Labour loss in Caerphilly could give other traditional Labour supporters permission to vote elsewhere without feeling their vote was wasted.

“We can no longer rely on people voting for us because it’s what was expected of them. Now we’ve got a greater disenchantment with politics in general and this shift to the right and easy populist soundbite answers to some of the most complex problems that the world is facing.

“In white working class areas, Reform are making inroads – and I am still baffled to understand why. I can understand people are p***ed with us, but why would you go to a far-right populist party that’s got nothing to offer?

“These communities in the Valleys would never in a million years vote Tory, and yet we’re seeing Tories jumping ship every day to join Reform and that isn’t resonating in these communities.”

READ MORE: Eluned Morgan warns public services at risk if Reform win in Senedd election

‘Keir Starmer has done us untold damage’

Not only would a Labour loss be a huge blow to the solar plexus for the party, it would also have immediate practical implications for First Minister Eluned Morgan and the Welsh Labour government. Although Labour has managed to pass budgets in the Senedd with the support of the lone Liberal Democrat MS, defeat would require the government to rely on another party for support – most likely Plaid Cymru.

Even that could be the tip of the iceberg: May’s Senedd elections could see Labour lose its place as the largest party in Wales.

In such a circumstance, the Welsh Labour source said that they would want to see Keir Starmer resign as Prime Minister and Labour leader.

“I think it will be seen that Keir Starmer has let Wales down. I think the view in Wales amongst a lot of our activists now is Keir Starmer has done us untold damage and we don’t think he can recover from it.

“I’m saying that as somebody who voted for Keir Starmer. I thought he would be the safe pair of hands that we needed, that would guide us through – but I just think he’s made so many mistakes and errors of judgement.”

‘The incumbency penalty is on steroids’

Another Welsh Labour source told LabourList that several events had overtaken Labour on several fronts, ranging from national frustrations to unpopular council decisions, like cuts to library funding.

They also pointed out that the resignation of Labour’s council leader in Caerphilly and their endorsement of Plaid Cymru, has also dealt a significant blow to Labour, along with an “anti-Welsh government mood” among voters.

They said: “After 26 years in power, the incumbency penalty is on steroids, the 20mph limit remains unpopular, and Westminster woes for the UK Labour government haven’t helped.

“It’s been a perfect storm, and it is hard to see where the win comes from now.

“Hard lessons will have to be learned and Labour’s message discipline will need to rival that of Reform’s and Plaid Cymru’s if it is to stand any chance of succeeding when such change, and voter revolt, is in the air.”

As I left Caerphilly, the castle’s walls stood unchanged – yet Labour’s support in its heartlands has rarely felt so brittle. Whatever the result next week, the warning signs for Welsh Labour and the national party are clear. After more than a century of dominance in Wales, the party can no longer rely on its history to carry it through – and if Caerphilly does fall, it won’t just be a local shock, but a national alarm bell.

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