Labour making a ‘mistake’ to focus entirely on Reform, Sir John Curtice warns

Sir John Curtice has warned Labour that Reform UK is not their only electoral threat, with left-wing parties also posing a challenge.

Speaking at a fringe event at the Labour party conference in Liverpool, the polling guru noted the party is losing more support to the Lib Dems and Greens than to Farage.

Keir Starmer’s party conference speech launched a broadside against Reform, painting the coming years as a battle between his vision of liberal Britain and Farageist decline.

But Professor Curtice cautioned that few votes are flowing directly from Labour to Reform – and that the party losing seats to Farage could come as a result of bleeding votes to the left.

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“This is where understanding of politics and the strategy of first-past-the-post in a fragmented world becomes so difficult,” he said.

“Reform are the party that, at the moment, would take most seats off you. But in much the same way that you took seats off the Tories, because Reform took votes off them, it’s also the case now that in many, many constituencies, Reform will take seats off you.

“Yes, because they’ve taken some votes off you, but also because they’re taking a bit because you are losing votes to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.”

Falling in the polls

It comes as Labour continues to face dire opinion polling despite a broadly upbeat conference, with Reform stubbornly clinging onto a substantial lead.

A recent YouGov MRP poll put Reform on course to win 311 seats if a general election were held tomorrow, putting them just short of a majority and likely landing Farage in Downing Street.

But voting intention polls suggest a wildly divided electorate, with parties rarely scoring above 30% of the popular vote – and five parties polling in double digits.

Professor Curtice said “dissatisfaction might push people in either direction”, but that “which direction they choose may then depend on other considerations”.

“The Tories focused on immigration, and what they did was to focus on a policy failure, rather than the issue that was actually driving voters away from them.”

He added: “If there’s one statistic that you should take out of this room, it is this – 55% of the people who voted leave in 2016 are currently supporters of Reform.”

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Immigration ‘not the only factor’

Immigration as an issue has dominated British politics over the past few years, with this often being cited as a key factor in the Tories’ catastrophic defeat last year – as well as the rise of Reform.

But Professor Curtice cautioned that the main parties’ haemorrhaging of support to Farage is not just to do with immigration.

“Immigration is an issue that, in a sense, its importance lies primarily in determining the destination that people go to if they’re unhappy.

“But the unhappiness may not simply, only, almost undoubtedly, isn’t just to do with immigration. It’s also to do with NHS and also to do with the economy.”

He said that Reform has tapped into a “very clear niche” political market in the UK that goes far beyond just migration – and also includes attacks on equalities, a dismissal of calls to apologise for Britain’s imperial past, and scepticism of Net Zero.

Although Professor Curtice described this worldview as a specific niche, he warned that a combination of first-past-the-post and a fragmented electorate could see Reform to victory.

“A niche market which gets you 30% of the vote under our electoral system at the moment, is potentially winning,” he said.

Can Labour recover?

LabourList asked Professor Curtice whether the government stands any chance of turning around the current dire level of pubic satisfaction reflected in opinion polls.

Sir John pointed to the state of the polls at this point in the last parliament, when Boris Johnson held a commanding lead – before his rapid downfall over Partygate and other scandals.

He added: “The question that is being raised about the current Labour leadership is, does it have the ability to change the mood?

“Because that is to do with political leadership. It isn’t just to do with technical delivery.”

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