Mick Antoniw: ‘Is Caerphilly a turning point for Welsh Labour?’

The Caerphilly by-election result for Welsh Labour was a cataclysmic disaster contributed to by the culmination of so many failures. 

It was also as much a symptom of the continuing demise of civic democracy as it is a reflection on the state of Welsh Labour.  It took place at a time of deep trauma for Senedd Members and friends and colleagues at the passing of our comrade Hefin David, but also at a time when our political system is at a precipice. There are important lessons for all political parties and movements as a consequence of the political tornado that has been tearing through elections in recent months. 

The successful Plaid Cymru candidate Lyndsey Whittle is a good local candidate who has been committed to and worked his constituency day in and day out and we must congratulate him on his win and, in particular, that he defeated Reform. It is that defeat which may well be the turning point in the political fortunes of Farage and Reform that we are beginning to witness. 

READ MORE: Wayne David: ‘What really happened in Caerphilly by-election’

Labour also had an excellent local candidate in Richard Tunnicliffe, but the campaign was lost even before it started. Occurring just over six months before the Senedd elections in May 2026, it is the last by-election on the old first past the post voting system, which is being replaced by a proportional voting list system. It is the last election where tactical voting was able to take place. And take place it did – with a vengeance. 

Right from the start, there were warning signs when the selection process disqualified the deputy leader of the Council from being considered for selection on the final list.  

Then the resignation and defection of the Labour Council leader over allegations of political manipulation reinforced other criticisms of the selection processes and central UK Labour policies sank what was already a floundering campaign.  

The impact of key political mistakes and immigration dominated the election. Local issues, Welsh issues, relating to health and education were a factor but increasingly peripheral as the London-centric media focused on Farage and Reform.  

Winter fuel, the turnabout on the Waspi campaign and the two-child benefits cap, played heavily and have become well lodged the mindset of much of the Welsh electorate. 

The feelings of betrayal, and of a Labour Party that many feel has lost its way, have become increasingly entrenched with many traditional Labour voters. 

The success of Welsh Labour over the past 26 years of devolution has been the identification of much of the population with traditional values, standing up for Wales. It is no accident that around half of those who are prepared to entertain the idea of Welsh independence have traditionally given their support to Welsh Labour. Many of these are increasingly transferring their support to other left-of-centre parties. 

Delivery of public services and outcomes is a key to winning elections but no more so than winning the hearts and minds of the electorate. They know that there are financial difficulties, that there are limitations on what can be achieved and how quickly they can be achieved. They know this particularly in Wales, where we have had the full brunt of 14 years of Tory austerity.  

However, there has to be a vision and a belief that things will get better. This has been lacking from day one since the general election, an election which failed to put two of the most important aspirations attuned to Labour values to the fore – equality and ending poverty.  

This failure has eaten away at the belief for so many that Labour was on their side and that it was a movement for change for our communities and future generations. 

Top-down command and control of the Parliamentary Labour Party has sterilised political debate. Our very strength as socialists is in the diversity of debate, ideas, aspirations and the motivation for change. Which is why so many joined the Labour Party and have given so much of their lives to creating a better society. 

We allowed Reform to set the agenda, to make immigration the number one issue. Instead of standing up to the overt and subliminal racism inherent in Reform propaganda, we have, for too long, tried to ‘out Reform Reform’ instead of calling them out, exposing the fallacy in their arguments and their hatred and divisiveness. We failed to stand up for immigrants as strongly as we should have. The ‘Island of strangers’ messaging was devastating for many of our members, retracted, but too late.  

In Caerphilly, it was a fantastic and brave group of Ukrainians who took Reform on in support of the Welsh Government’s Nation of Sanctuary policy. Their exposure of the far right and Reform’s links and associations with Putin began to resonate with much of the public.    

As the campaign became more desperate the tone of Labour messaging lost credibility. Whatever our differences with Plaid Cymru there are many policy areas where we have much in common and have had to work collectively to govern Wales. They are not the other side of the coin from Reform. Labour voters turned to supporting the only party that could defeat Reform, and on this occasion, that was Plaid Cymru.  

How was it possible to have a campaign which barely highlighted some of the really great and groundbreaking laws and policies introduced by the Welsh Labour government? The £2.8 billion 21st century  schools rebuilding programme all over Wales (equivalent of £55 billion were a similar policy to be implemented in England); the billion pound transformation of rail transport since devolution in 2017; publicly owned, new trains, stations and a metro system which is a massive boost to Caerphilly; the £2 billion heads of the valleys road, a fantastic feat of engineering which opens the door to massive economic development and prosperity in the heads of the valleys;  the new NHS diagnostic centres under construction; the free prescriptions which the Tories and Reform would almost certainly abandon; environmental reform; coal tip safety;  social partnership and many other achievements 

There are many questions to be answered about the campaign and its domination by London-centric messaging that will need to be answered. 

One of the dilemmas facing Welsh Labour is the way it has been increasingly sidelined by UK Labour in an effort to bring it under greater central control and to contain its devolution aspirations. The muting of the “Welsh Labour” brand and the cynical abandonment of the inspirational reforms proposed by former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and the recommendations of the independent commission on the future of Wales led by Dr Rowan Williamson and Professor Laura McAllister all testify to the continuation by the UK government of a version of the muscular unionism of the Tories after Theresa May left office.  

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The continuation of the Internal Market Act; the failure to consider reform of the Barnett funding formula; the volte-face on railway funding; and the kicking into the long grass of the devolution of youth justice, probation and policing (despite all the evidence) are part of the loss of morale for change. Diversion of funding for devolved functions to non-devolved bodies is an affront to devolution, democracy and common sense; there are many other examples. 

The Welsh office in the post-devolution era has become a constitutional anachronism. Searching for a role, it has increasingly become Westminster’s voice in Wales as opposed to Wales voice in Westminster and undermines the development and operation of the newly established Inter-Governmental Framework.  

The political challenge for many in Westminster Labour is to recognise that the UK has changed. Its politics have become more local and regional. Sovereignty no longer lies solely in Westminster, but in four parliaments, which pass laws on the basis of democratic mandates. We have to abandon this old and outdated Victorian style of over-centralised governance. There are some moves to change this in England, but in Wales, it seems to have ground to a halt and even shifted into reverse. This is self-defeating. Have we learned nothing from the demise of Scottish Labour almost two decades ago? 

The democratic challenge for Labour is to inspire and deliver. The old industrial class system of Labour support has withered away over the decades. Traditional loyalties cannot be taken for granted. In many constituencies, barely 50 percent of the electorate vote. In Wales, 400,000 aren’t even on the register. At UK level, the first past the post system is undermining confidence in democracy. How can it be right that we can win two-thirds of the seats with one-third of the vote? We cannot go on like this. Unfortunately, there are many from the left and right of the Party who still have their heads in the sand. 

And for the Welsh Labour political organisation, it is time to properly and fully devolve. Two years ago, the Welsh Labour conference overwhelmingly passed a call for the devolution of the Labour rule book. This has been totally ignored. Where is the democracy in this? We are losing members in droves. Democracy and our socialist politics demand much better.  

In six months’ time, Welsh Labour can win the Senedd elections. But it will be incredibly difficult if there is no radical change in politics and organisation.  

I write this because I know we can win, and that as democratic socialists it is our duty to win to build on the progress we have made in Wales over the past 100 years. 

If we want to win we have to be radical and we have to be Labour. We have to make prosperity, equality and tackling poverty our Welsh Labour cornerstones. 

I am sure there are many who will disagree with my analysis, or will want discredit it. That is fine, but we cannot afford not to have an honest and open debate.  

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I am not standing at the next elections so perhaps I can say things in a way others might describe more diplomatically. But as someone who has been a Labour member for 52 years’ served in the Welsh government as Counsel General under three first ministers; served as Minister for the Constitution; been a Councillor and lifelong trade union member I feel it is better to say what I believe and what I know many members are saying and thinking.  

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