Starmer would defeat Streeting in leadership contest, poll suggests

Keir Starmer would lose a head-to-head leadership contest against Angela Rayner, but win against Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband, polling for LabourList has revealed.

Polling conducted by Survation for LabourList found that the former deputy leader would defeat Starmer by a 11-point margin, but the Prime Minister would defeat the Energy Secretary by three points.

Should Angela Rayner challenge Keir Starmer to the leadership of the party, the poll suggested she would secure close to a majority (48%) of support among Labour members, with Starmer attracting just under four in ten members’ support (37%) and 15% undecided or unsure.

Support for Rayner in such a contest would be strongest in South East England (60%) and the North West (59%), while Starmer’s support would be greatest in Yorkshire and the Humber (48%), London (46%) and Wales (45%).

The poll exposed a deep rift among those who backed either candidate in the deputy leadership election. Almost two-thirds (64%) of members who backed Lucy Powell would support Rayner as leader in the hypothetical election, while 66% of Bridget Phillipson supporters would back Starmer in the contest.

A similar divide in the membership is present in a hypothetical Starmer-Miliband contest, with the poll suggesting a narrow win for Keir Starmer with 44% to 41% – within the margin of error.

In such an election, Miliband would see a strong base of support in the South East (55%), while Starmer’s support would be strongest in London (52%).

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would also defeat Keir Starmer in a head-to-head leadership contest by 53% to 37%. However, Burnham would be ineligible to stand as party leader as he is not an MP.

READ MORE: ‘Does the Mandelson scandal mark the endgame for Keir Starmer’s premiership?’

Despite being one of the favourites to succeed Keir Starmer as the next Labour leader, should Starmer face-off against Streeting in a leadership contest, the Prime Minister would emerge triumphant, according to our poll.

Starmer would secure support from 42% of party members, compared to just 30% for the Health Secretary, with 28% undecided or unsure.

While more than half (52%) of Bridget Phillipson supporters would back Keir Starmer in such a scenario, almost four in ten (37%) would support Wes Streeting.

Members who voted for Lucy Powell in the deputy leadership election are more divided. While a small plurality (35%) would back the Prime Minister in a head-to-head against Streeting, just over a quarter (28%) would support the Health Secretary.

Burnham and Streeting lead first preferences

When asked to rank potential leadership contenders in order of preference, Burnham led the way in first preferences, followed by Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner.

However, Rayner and Ed Miliband would overtake Streeting once second and third preferences were taken into account, according to the poll.

The poll was conducted before the height of the Mandelson scandal on Wednesday.

‘Starmer still has decent base in party membership’

Emma Burnell, editor of LabourList, said: “Keir Starmer still has a decent base in the party membership. Some are tired of the drama and want to see Labour get on with what they were elected to do. Others believe in the PMs strengths as a leader and believe he is the right man for what is a very difficult job.

“The fact that there are others who would be more popular at the moment is not wholly surprising given the government’s difficulties. The question that both those who support Starmer and those who would wish to replace him are asking themselves is if – and how – he can get through this period and turn around Labour’s fortunes.”

‘Starmer remains on the ropes’

Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said: “The poll – undertaken before the recent Peter Mandelson scandal – showed Starmer seeing off competition from his oft-touted leadership challenger, Wes Streeting, as well as Ed Miliband, who consistently tops the cabinet league table amongst members.

“However, his leadership is far from secured, as the PM would still be expected to lose amongst members against both Burnham and Rayner. There is no denying it: Keir Starmer remains on the ropes, even if he is not down and out for the count.”

The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

Survation surveyed 1,264 readers of LabourList, the leading dedicated newsletter and news and comment website for Labour supporters, who also said they were Labour Party members between January 29 and February 3.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age group, sex, region and 2025 deputy leadership vote. Targets for weighting were drawn from the British Election Study and the results of the leadership and deputy leadership election.

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