Can Welsh Labour defy the odds and win control of the Senedd again?

In just under six weeks’ time, voters in Wales will go to their local polling station in what could be the most seismic Senedd election since devolution. Prediction polls currently put Labour on course for a crushing defeat, with current data suggesting the party that has spent the last two decades as the Senedd’s largest political force may fall shockingly into third – behind Reform UK and Plaid Cymru. 

Ahead of Welsh Labour’s manifesto launch today, LabourList visited Wales to get a sense of the mood among the party’s hopefuls, and see whether Labour can really find a way to lead the Welsh government once again.

‘Who’s got the delivery capability for Wales?’

Beginning in the devolved nation’s capital and home of the Senedd in Cardiff, we met Cardiff council leader Huw Thomas and outgoing TUC Cymru general secretary Shav Taj.

Thomas, standing for the Caerdydd Penarth constituency after almost a decade leading the council, said that the Welsh Labour government could move from fighting to protect Welsh interests to “renewal”, working in tandem with the Labour government in Westminster.

“The capital investment we would be able to make in Wales’ hospitals, that’s enabled by having a Labour government in London, supporting and giving a Labour government in Wales the tools to deliver for the people of Wales.

“The key question is who’s got the ambition and who’s got the delivery capability for Wales.”

He also said that a “new generation of candidates”, himself included, would bring “fresh experience” to government.

Keeping a union voice in the Senedd

In the neighbouring Cardiff constituency of Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf, we met Shav Taj at a local Tesco in a suburb of the Welsh capital, where we heard stories about the prevalence of shoplifting and issues with drug abuse in the local community.

Taj, having served within the trade union movement for many years, said she wanted to ensure union voices continue to be represented in Cardiff Bay as many champions of working people, like Mark Drakeford, retire from the Senedd.

“For me, when you’ve got people who have always represented the interests of working people leaving the Senedd and standing down, in order to continue with that tradition of making sure that workers’ rights are protected, that they are factored in from the get go, then it makes sense for not only myself but also lots of others [to stand] who have union backgrounds.”

Taj grew up in a Labour household, with her dad working as a steelworker and serving as a union rep. However, it was the activism of far-right parties in her community and the death of Stephen Lawrence that politicised her.

“Me and my friend ran a campaign in the school against racism, we got in touch with the local radio station and it snowballed from there.

“When Stephen Lawrence was murdered, I would go to the TUC and go on marches and became very much active in that sense.”

‘We need to pat ourselves on the back more’

After spending time in Cardiff, we travelled out into the South Wales Valleys to Merthyr Tydfil to meet Labour candidate for Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr Lloyd Watkins.

Running in part of the nation that has long been a bastion of Labour support, Watkins – a self-described “cradle to grave socialist and trade unionist” reflected on the punishing effects of austerity, which convinced him to join Welsh Labour in 2013.

“It was a political choice. I learnt that at university, so that anti-austerity message I absolutely love.

“That’s why I get the frustration of party members and the general public when it comes to Labour – they don’t want it to be a diet or light version of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives or the others. People voted for change, that is why we have a super-majority [in Westminster], to make sure that change comes through.”

Amid the noise from and frustration with Westminster, Watkins stressed the need for Welsh Labour to talk up its own achievements, from reduced waiting times and free prescriptions to investment in the nation’s transport infrastructure.

“We need to pat ourselves on the back more.”

‘Plaid and Reform feed off anger, resentment, fear and insecurity’

For the final day of our trip across Wales, we travelled north to Wrexham to meet Ken Skates, the Welsh government’s transport and North Wales secretary.

Skates, who’s served in the Senedd for 15 years, talked us through some of the investment Welsh Labour has made in government for North Wales, in particular through cross-border projects for Network North Wales, but said that Plaid Cymru opposed the move purely on separatist grounds.

“Plaid put independence ahead of everything, including prosperity and health. They are trying to hide the fact that their purpose is independence. They’re trying to present themselves as progressive, whereas actually in North Wales they’ve been known for decades as the daffodil Tories.”

Skates, standing in the new Fflint Wrecsam constituency, also said that Plaid and Reform are two sides of the same coin – and put investment across Wales at risk.

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“One party is a party of Welsh nationalism, the other is a party of British nationalism.

“If you look at the similarities, both are populists and neither have the prosperity and economic wellbeing of people as their priority. For both, it’s about independence, it’s about purity of culture and identity, they’re both quite nimbyistic when it comes to housebuilding.

“It’s an appeal to people’s negative emotions – they fuel and feed off anger, resentment, envy, fear and insecurity.”

‘The response on the doorstep is far better than polls suggest’

One refrain united all four of the Labour candidates that we met: “the response on the doorstep is far better than the polls would suggest”, as Thomas put it, but warned of the dangers if Labour does not perform well.

However, Watkins accepted that some voters, having voted for change in 2024, felt fed up – feeling that what they had backed at the general election had not been delivered.

He also said that there had been a mixed reception for Keir Starmer on the doorstep, with voters more open to considering Plaid or Reform and “roll the dice”.

That said, both Thomas and Skates said that some voters on the doorstep had given the Prime Minister credit for his approach on the Iran conflict.

The consideration of taking a risk with other parties is something Thomas has seen on the doorstep with some voters, with one having the false belief that Reform wouldn’t look to axe Wales’ free prescriptions if they took power in the nation. It was only after Thomas challenged that perspective that that particular voter questioned whether voting Reform is worth the gamble.

From the threat Labour faces from Plaid, Taj said she fears that they would be inexperienced if handed the reins of power – and that Wales would lose investment as a result.

“There are so many businesses, so many international companies that have recently visited Wales and they’ve been really open about it. They’ve said ‘if we don’t end up with a Labour government, we’re not sure if we are going to want to follow through on those agreements.

“There is a lot to play for, but equally, there is a lot at risk if we don’t do well in the Senedd elections.”

Skates also expressed hope that Labour would rebound in the polls with a swing in the polls back to the incumbent as the election gets nearer.

“I’m not feeling it on the doorstep and I think – and I’m hearing this from colleagues across Wales – polls are always a snapshot of protest. I firmly believe that polls are for political pundits and politicians largely, but you have to caveat them with so many health warnings.

“I respect polls, I love polls, they don’t keep me up at all.”

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