‘Holyrood hope’

Continuing with the theme of our roving reports this Spring, LabourList has sent Daniel Green and I to Scotland’s central belt. We’re here to take a closer look at the situation for Scottish Labour in their campaign to oust the SNP from Holyrood. And we’ll be delivering analysis straight to you from the ground.

Even through a first glance this election is shaping up to be like no other. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar will lead the party in his second attempt at turning yellow to red, while keeping an eye on the teal threat to Labour’s unionist base appeal. 

Sarwar will undoubtedly be remembered for his bold decision to put distance between Scottish Labour and the national government in Westminster, calling for the Prime Minister to resign. It is unclear if Sarwar truly believed his call would prompt the change he had asked for. 

READ MORE: Can Welsh Labour defy the odds and win control of the Senedd again?

His decision has been compared to James Purnell’s resignation from Gordon Brown’s government in 2009, in his hope of triggering a leadership contest. The Scottish Labour leader stood as a lone voice, casting his verdict on the PM’s premiership for all the public to see. After rallying cabinet support in Westminster and backing from Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan, by the end of the day Sarwar’s challenge left Starmer in a stronger position than he had started it.  

However, in making this choice and justifying it as a necessity to “put the Scottish people first”, the man hoping to be Scotland’s next First Minister has created an element of separation that he will hope provides a bounce in the polls. 

Prior to the last general election, polling suggested that the Scottish public were beginning to tire of SNP domination in Holyrood. A party damaged by scandal and stained with the responsibility of NHS mismanagement is considered an opponent with significant vulnerabilities. 

With the Tories facing near oblivion in May and Reform’s chances of being in a position of power in Holyrood slim to none, Sarwar’s pitch to the electorate is that a vote for Scottish Labour is the “best… and possibly our only chance” to oust the SNP from office.

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At Scottish Labour’s one day conference in February, the party aimed to appeal to the desire for SNP removal – even if it required “holding your nose” while in the voting booth. 

The difficult task for Labour in Scotland will be shoring up a splintered unionist vote, while battling continued voter dissatisfaction towards the UK government. As much as Sarwar can try to create a perception of separation with Westminster, he must accept that there is a limit to the success of this tactic while still sharing a party name, brand and membership.

Polling predicts Labour may be on track to become the second largest party in the Scottish Parliament, but still lose seats.

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Despite a 15-point gap in the polls, the party are hoping to defy the odds for a third time, following unexpected electoral successes in both Rutherglen and Hamilton. But, as Labour contended following Gorton and Denton, by-election results rarely provide insight as to how a national election will play out.

Over the next week, we look forward to bringing you all the information from the ground as we speak to Scottish Labour candidates across the campaign trail. Make sure to keep reading LabourList for the inside scoop on all things Labour, no matter where they are happening…

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