Will Labour win in 2015? Labour supporters think – Yes (Maybe)

January 14, 2013 4:44 pm

We’ve already told you who LabourList’s MP of the year is, how our readers rate the shadow cabinet and how Ed Miliband has performed over the past twelve months, but there’s one set of responses we haven’t released yet – Do Labour supporters think Labour is on track to win the General Election?

The answer is Yes (Maybe) – or perhaps Maybe (Yes). It’s not a no – but it’s not a sign of total confidence either. Here’s how you voted (percentages are below):

willlabourwinin2015

Do you think Labour is on track to win the General Election?
Response Percent
Yes 42.8%
No 11.8%
Maybe 43.5%
Don’t Know 2.0%

878 of you voted in our end of year survey. Thanks to everyone who took part

  • AlanGiles

    Just to cheer up more despondent LL readers, I think, barring some really staggering luck with the economy, the Coalition will LOSE the 2015 election, so Labour will “win” it, but I don’t think anybody should get excited about the idea of a 1997 landslide. As things stand today I suspect they will get a small majority in double figures, but of course, as Tim Wonnacott says to each team on “Bargain Hunt” – ‘that could be a winning score’.

    However, that said, we now know that Balls will still be Shadow (and probably real) Chancellor, so I think he will have to come up with something better than “too far too fast”, you still have Twigg trying to turn both ways at Education, you still have the incipient Mayor of Birmingham as shadow at DWP.

    I don’t think just parrotting “one nation” (which it never will be), will take much more exposure as a catchphrase. If you actually want to win rather than just be seen as the lesser of two evils, you have to offer policies that inspire ordinary working (and non-working) people to WANT to vote FOR YOU. Just rearranging coalition policies is not going to get you very far, and will probably result in another one term government.

    • AlanGiles

      Sadly, since writing the above,(about luck with the economy) it looks as if there might well be yet another major catastrophe on the High Street:-

      http://uk.news.yahoo.com/hmv-board-pondering-retailers-future-192420858–finance.html

      For all the thousands of people who are losing their jobs, and cannot find another, or can only find short term or part time work, perhaps now would be a good time for Labour to stop going on about “strivers” and trying to make a false distinction between those in work and those out of it.

      • robertcp

        Alan, Labour politicians should be banned from saying strivers for the next 10 years. Banning the phrase One Nation might be too much to hope for!

      • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

        Alan, you’ll love this news re one of the UK’s most infamous strivers:

        http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/tony-blair/9797837/Tony-Blair-widens-his-web-via-the-stock-markets.html

        • AlanGiles

          I think Auntie Tony (who looks more camp with every new photograph) is aiming to be the richest man in the graveyard.

          Again his “charitable” work gets mentioned – my guess is the greatest proportion of the charity money goes to the “Cherie/Tone” charity.

          Is there nothing this man won’t do for money? expect to see him with the other has-been actors and desperate for a relaunch tarts on “Celebrity Big Brother” or the jungle rubbish – if the fee is high enough.

          That aside, I just wish the “One Nation” Labour party supporters would now recognize the bogosity of this silly term (interestingly filched from the Conservatives in the 19th century – so good to see Eddie keeping up to date). As long as we have warmongering ex PMs, prancing round the world like a 1930s matinee idol, Oxbridge know-nothings who believe we should do what they say and not as they do (running a “no ifs, no buts” advertising campaign to frighten benefit claimants at the same time as they were lodging bogus expense claims for cleaning and pretending their second home was in fact their parents home), as long as we have stupid, greedy women like Margaret Moran able to evade criminal penalties having been found guilty of multiple charges of fraud (“deny me and I’ll kill myself”) that we have the sons and daughters of “famous” politicians foisted on safe constituencies – in short – as long as we have politicians who think they are above the law and different standards of behaviour apply to them, there cannot be “one nation”. Better men than Ed Miliband and his bunch of political pygmies strove for that happy state. they failed, and it is dishonest for the current group of spineless politicians who live in fear of upsetting the press and 24 hour news, to even pretend it will ever happen.

          I wonder – deep down – if even the most simpering Labour sycophant really believe this Nirvana is possible?.

    • robertcp

      Alan, Ed Balls was right when he said in 2010 that the Coalition’s deficit reduction was “too far, too fast” but Labour does need to start thinking about what it will do after 2015. Part of this should probably be a slightly slower rate of deficit reduction.

      • AlanGiles

        Hi Robert. Ed Balls was one of so many people who were right, but that doesn’t mean that he has the answers to the problems we have. Just because the coalition look set to
        lose the next election (and it seems that HMV won’t be the last big
        name to go under in this year):-

        http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21021073

        http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/08/festive-sales-disappoint-uk-retailers

        At least one other big name is widely
        rumoured set to become a web-only company before the years end.

        But – 2000 people lost their jobs at
        Jessops last Friday at no notice at all. HMV employ over 4500 people,
        and rent quarter day falls on 25th January – 10 days
        time, so it is not inconceivable that in a month we will have over
        6500 people unemployed. I am not sure calling in Deloite, who did so
        much for Woolworths is such a smart move (nor was it a very clever
        idea for HMV to appoint the former chief of Jessops as their head
        last year, long after it was public knowledge that Jessops was in
        severe trouble).

        Even if every supermarket in the nation
        went on a recruiting drive, it is unlikely they could come up with
        6500 full time vacancies. Also, it should be remembered one of the
        “big five” supermarkets had a bad Xmas.

        Given all this, if Labour want to
        really look different from the Coalition they should stop going on
        about “strivers” and suggesting that being unemployed, for
        whatever reason, makes you a “lesser” person. Last weeks debate
        on welfare concentrated on lower paid people losing benefits, rather
        more than the plight of the unemployed. In other words, stop dancing
        to the Coaliton’s tune. And TRY to sound genuine.

        If you were one of these 6,500 people
        facing the dole queue, would you be very taken by constant references
        to “the squeezed middle”, or consoled by the long term musings of
        pseudo-intellectual Jon Crudas, or, frankly Ed Miliband with his
        autocue of cliche’s at the Fabian Society on Saturday?.

        It is getting harder for workers in the
        retail sector to find even part-time jobs (many people have to have
        more than one – I have spoken of my neighbour, poor woman who is on
        a “no hours” contract with Tesco. I was talking to her the other
        day about what she thought of Labour’s “One Nation” of
        “strivers”. Her response, unfortunately, is unprintable, even in
        2013.

        The fact is politicians regardless of
        party talk ABOUT people rather than TO them, except at election time.
        You get the feeling they are ardent viewers of TV soap operas where
        everybody works next door to their home, and if they lose a job they
        will get one next day at the Launderette (do they still exist?) or
        the corner shop or the cafe. Nobody is out of work for more than a
        day – unless they want to be. Perhaps as most politicians came
        straight from Oxbridge they spent too much time forming their views
        and ideas from cheap drama?.

        Until all of them, whatever the party,
        really take a grip of the long term problems of this country and are
        not just after a cheap headline and a quick fix for the next
        election, we will continue to drift on with minority governments,
        because the public, as a whole, tend to believe that they are all the
        same, all self interested and know nothing about life on a housing
        estate. Keep muttering “one nation” is banal and pointless.

        • robertcp

          I agree Alan.

  • Amber_Star

    Boundary changes are still being mooted as possible by the Tories. I will be more confident once these are finally ruled out. Lords are voting today on something which might help to make them less likely.

    • AlanGiles

      The government was in fact defeated last night in the Lords by some “rogue” LibDem peers, so things will remain the same for 2015, Amber. This news rather got lost in the terrible news of the possible loss of thousands of jobs at HMV.

      • Chilbaldi

        Doubly important that we win in 2015 so that this gerrymandering is off the menu for good.
        Win in 2015, have a minor boundary review, goodbye Tory gerrymandering.

  • Brumanuensis

    As a ‘maybe’, I should perhaps emphasise that whilst I would never vote ‘yes’ to a question such as this, I’m confident it can be done. I just don’t want to be complacent.

    • robertcp

      I would also say “maybe”. Biggest party in a hung Parliament will be a good result after the disaster in 2010. It is all to play for because the Lib Dems joined the Coalition and Ed Miliband has moved away from the New Labour nonsense.

  • http://www.facebook.com/john.richards.94617999 Keith Lenaghan

    Tories couldn’t win last election and they are a lot less popular now than they were then, so Labour will win or go into coalition with LibDems Please sign petition. We want a Spring election http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/33327

Latest

  • Comment Why rural areas need free buses

    Why rural areas need free buses

    To have a fully functioning society, bus services in rural areas should be free of charge. For young people seeking employment, education or entertainment, the unwell needing to visit and be visited in hospitals or the elderly wanting to break the loneliness of isolation, public transport is essential. If governments don’t want to spend money on services in rural areas, they should at least provide the means for people who live there to get to them in urban areas. Regular […]

    Read more →
  • News Austin Mitchell rubbishes claims that Labour MPs could join UKIP

    Austin Mitchell rubbishes claims that Labour MPs could join UKIP

    The idea that any Labour MPs could follow Douglas Carswell’s lead by joining UKIP is merely “wishful thinking” on their part, according to a prominent Eurosceptic Labour MP. Yesterday, Nigel Farage claimed that he has “spoken to many” Labour MPs this year who “support everything UKIP is trying to do”, while a UKIP source today told the BBC that as many as ten “deeply unhappy” Labour MPs who are “fed up with being patronised by the Labour glitterati” and would […]

    Read more →
  • Featured David Cameron only has himself to blame for his problems with UKIP

    David Cameron only has himself to blame for his problems with UKIP

    This week’s defection by Douglas Carswell to UKIP was a hammer blow for the Prime Minister’s authority.  David Cameron and the Tories are running scared of UKIP and are more divided than ever before. With Stuart Wheeler, the former Tory donor and now UKIP treasurer, declaring that at least two more MPs are “seriously considering” defecting, we know that the introspection and turmoil is set to continue. As the Tories’ identity crisis deepens, it becomes clearer and clearer that they cannot provide […]

    Read more →
  • Comment Rather than focusing on free schools, Labour should consider supporting home education

    Rather than focusing on free schools, Labour should consider supporting home education

    The Labour Party, since at least 2010 have gradually begun to present a coherent, cohesive education programme, to present to the electorate in time for the General Election in 2015. We’ve rightly focused on Michael Gove’s profligate waste of money on free schools. We’ve rightly focused on the Liberal Democrats’ breaking their pledge to vote against raising tuition fees. We’ve rightly focused on the other 50% of people who decide to not go to University and we’re now right to […]

    Read more →
  • Comment Attracting the anti-UKIP vote – why Clacton matters for Labour

    Attracting the anti-UKIP vote – why Clacton matters for Labour

    Make yourself a cuppa, pull up a comfy chair, and watch. Since Douglas Carswell’s surprise/no-surprise defection to UKIP yesterday and the forcing of a by-election in Clacton, there will be some in the party tempted to adopt this attitude. And not without good reason. Consider the previous by-election outings over the last year or so. In Eastleigh, a Liberal Democrat/Tory marginal, from nowhere, became a LD/UKIP marginal. The Conservatives were dumped into third place and our vote stagnated at just […]

    Read more →