Are things only going to get better?

Labour are not having a great summer. Another day, another bad poll for Ed Miliband. Another slew of advice from friends and foes alike.

Be silent! Speak out! Defend our record! Make a break! Be an opposition! Be a government in waiting! Be radical – nationalise! Be radical – reform! Sack the Shadow Cabinet! Promote the Shadow Cabinet! More policies please! Just not those ones!

Are you feeling dizzy and slightly queasy yet? Like you’re stuck on a bad fairground ride on the end of the pier that simply won’t stop. You know if you could just get off the merry-go-round for a moment, you could catch your breath and find your feet. But instead, there’s a gurning loon everywhere you turn spinning you faster and harder, faster and harder.

Well tough I’m afraid. This is what it’s going to be like from now until May 2015. The Tories are on election footing – and believe they are on the front foot. We need to stabilise ourselves and fast. Because of course the Tories are going to relentlessly press any advantage they can.

We could use half as much of their ruthlessness when we are on top. And even more so when we find ourselves challenged. Because ultimately, this is what is missing from every part of the Labour narrative – from the leader on downwards. All else flows from our attitude. And at the moment, our attitude is unsure.

We need to get sure and do it fast. We have a Party conference and a mooted reshuffle coming up and by that point, Ed needs to be completely confident in the path he has chosen. He also needs to be completely aware that choosing a path will cut him off from some of those who want him to take a different path.  And he must not let this phase him. Sure, his critics will carp. If he chooses a path I’m not happy with I might even be one of them.

Ignore me Ed. Because above policy, above personnel, above tactics and strategy, above all else, what Labour needs is self confidence. We need to learn to champion our triumphs, to shrug off our defeats and to stride more purposefully towards government. This confidence is in your gift – but you must instil it at every level and make sure you are bringing us all up over the hill with you.

Being Leader of the Opposition is the hardest job in the world. It also comes with just about the most unsolicited advice in the world. The UK media couldn’t have more opinions on what Ed should and shouldn’t do unless he were a footballer contemplating a transfer. Ed has run a long strategy of taking from everyone what he needed to sustain him. But now it’s time to let that go. To stand up and be counted and make it clear that the opinion on how best to lead the Labour Party that counts is that of its elected leader.

This is not Ed’s natural style. And I am – by no means – imploring Ed to come across all fake bravado and nonsense macho swagger. But that steel that got him to the top of his party is now needed to get his party over the top come election time. And make no mistake – the campaign has started. He will need to set a tone of confidence that can inspire the rest of the party to do the same.

Because while complacency is a huge enemy of success, so is despondency. Labour cannot and must not talk ourselves out of a victory we have the potential of winning. We have to work harder than we’ve had to work in many years to make this a one term government. We won’t do so either if we think we’re going to be handed it on a plate or are already out of the running. Neither is true.

The current narrative is bad but it is not yet set in stone. Wait much longer and it will be. We know all the factors that are ranged against us – a better funded opponent, a right-wing press and the sense that we are fighting our own recent history as much as we are fighting the coalition. But these were always going to be the case. Nobody said it would be easy. But it is essential if we are to restore Labour to power ready to implement the kind of changes our country need.

Labour is down, but not yet out. If Ed can choose a path to walk, he will find that things can indeed only get better.