New poll has Labour ELEVEN points behind UKIP in Euro elections

Ok, so it’s probably an outlier – but this is a terrifying poll for Labour from ComRes for ITV:

Con 18 (-4) Lab 27 (-3) UKIP 38 (+8) LD 8 (-) O 9 (-1)

That’s a UKIP lead of ELEVEN over Labour. Another poll today had a UKIP lead of nine.

Forget how bad this is for the Tories for a second, the party that wants to form the next government can’t afford to lose a national poll by a double digit margin less than a year before general election day. And 46% of those who said they’d be voting UKIP on May 22nd voted Tory last time. 

However – these voting figures are representative of those who say they are certain to vote. Euro elections are usually low turnout, but bearing in mind there are local elections – many in Labour heartlands – turnout could be higher. If you include the voting intention of everyone who is 50/50 on whether they’ll vote or not, UKIP’s lead over Labour slips to 4 points. Still not good – and indicative of an enthusiasm gap – but less disastrous…

Labour launches its campaign for the May elections tomorrow – we need something good…