Strategists now believe UKIP could hand election to Labour

Labour Party strategists have calculated that if UKIP poll more than 9% of votes in next year’s election, Ed Miliband will become prime minister, reports The Telegraph front page today. According to Lord Ashcroft polling, Nigel Farage’s party take far more of their votes from the Conservatives than they do from Labour, and are currently on course to take enough to ensure that Labour win in 2015.

Ashcroft’s polls say that 52% of current UKIP supporters voted Tory in 2010 – while only 15% previously voted Labour. Internal party polling supposedly shows a similar split, confirming suspicions that UKIP pose a greater threat to the Conservatives.

Using these figures, strategists have concluded that UKIP would only need to secure 9% of the vote to prevent a second term in office for David Cameron. At the last general election, only 3% of voters chose UKIP, while their current polling average is about 12%.

A “senior Labour source” is quoted in The Telegraph piece, saying: “The Tories lose a lot more than we do from a decent UKIP performance. The whole election could hang on how many of their current voters stick with them next May.”

Many in the Labour Party will be uncomfortable with the suggestion that we could be taking a laissez-faire approach to UKIP in the coming year. As well as topping the European elections, the local elections in May saw them attracting many votes in Labour heartlands. Only last week, they won a council by-election in Doncaster, where Ed Miliband’s constituency is (with this electoral analysis of the city accusing Labour of “burying its head in the sand” over the issue), and Lord Ashcroft’s marginal polling revealed that UKIP are on course to win Labour target seats, and prevent Labour from winning in others.

Another worry is that this will lead to complacency. UKIP’s popularity seems to be on the wane (their current 12% average is a drop from the high teens they have averaged for much of this year). If the majority of their base comes from the Tories, a decline in their support could mean a serious boost for Cameron.

Any positives to be gained from the rise of UKIP are fraught with pitfalls for Labour. Indeed, the only catch-free outcome is the promise from Nigel Farage that he will resign as UKIP leader if Ed Miliband becomes PM. Win-win.