Ashcroft poll correction shows no UKIP threat to Miliband in Doncaster North

Plenty was made last week of the idea that if Tories vote for UKIP in Doncaster North next May they could unseat Ed Miliband next May. This was prompted by Lord Ashcroft polling in the constituency that showed Miliband was ahead of UKIP by just 12 points – a healthy lead, but one which could be overturned by tactical voting, as Ashcroft himself pointed out.

However, Lord Ashcroft has issued a correction today, along with an apology, admitting a mistake had been made in the weighting of the poll – and that Miliband actually has a 29 point lead.

Labour are actually polling 54% in Miliband’s constituency, while UKIP are second with 25%. The Tories are polling 13%, and the Lib Dems just 4% – meaning that if every single voter for a Coalition party switched to UKIP, they would still be 12 points behind Miliband.

Ashcroft lists the corrections as:

“In a nutshell, Labour lead UKIP by 29 points in Doncaster North, not twelve; Miliband leads Cameron as best PM by 14 points, not one point; Miliband’s constituents would rather see him as PM than Cameron; they give him the highest ratings of the four main party leaders, not the third highest; and they trust Miliband and Labour more on the economy than Cameron and Osborne, not the reverse.”

Former Tory donor Ashcroft has won praise for from across the political spectrum for his efforts in political polling, especially the attention given to marginals. While this clarification may be embarrassing, his frank mea culpa is likely to help his reputation.

The latest Ashcroft National poll this afternoon gives Labour a two-point lead:

Labour 32%, Tories 30%, UKIP 16%, Lib Dems 7%, Green 6%